Coinjock, NC 27974 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Updated discussion.

No significant changes.

Key messages

1) Some patchy fog/low stratus is once again possible late tonight into Friday, mainly across southeast VA and northeast NC. Otherwise, a dry, seasonable weather pattern is looking likely for Halloween weekend and into early next week.

2) Rain chances have trended down for early next week. A better chance for rain looks to develop for the latter half of next week.

Discussion

As of 310 PM EDT Thursday:

KEY MESSAGE 1: Some patchy fog/low stratus is once again possible late tonight into Friday, mainly across southeast VA and northeast NC. Otherwise, dry, seasonable weather pattern is looking likely for Halloween weekend and into early next week.

Latest weather analysis shows 1028+ mb high pressure offshore of the northeast coast, ridging back across the lower mid- Atlantic. Low pressure continues to slide across S QC, with the associated cold front over the eastern Great Lakes, extending back into the Central Plains. Locally, early morning stratus and fog have cleared most of the area, though some lingering strato cu continues to slowly erode over southside Hampton Roads into northeast NC. Temperatures have warmed well into the 60s to lower 70s over much of the region, with even a few mid 70s across south central VA and northeast NC. Expect low clouds re-develop late tonight into early Friday, mainly across the south/southeastern portion of the area around sunrise Friday morning, quickly eroding by mid-morning.

The cold front to the north drops into the region tomorrow afternoon. However, its initial push of cold air advection will be delayed until later tomorrow evening. Given plenty of sunshine and dry W-NW flow, expect one more warm day with forecast highs into the upper 70s and low 80s. These temperatures in tandem with Td values falling into the upper 40s and low 50s will yield minimum RH values of 35-40% in the afternoon across interior VA and NE NC. Cool air advection arrives tomorrow night, and will cool temperatures back to near/just above climatological normal for the weekend. Halloween looks dry and pleasant, with highs in the 60s and increasing clouds Saturday evening for the trick-or-treaters and temperatures mainly in the 50s to near 60.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain chances have trended down for early next week. A better chance for rain looks to develop for the latter half of next week.

The chance for measurable rainfall continues to decrease for Sunday night into Monday. Model guidance has trended weaker with an upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest, and probabilistic guidance has accordingly lowered QPF with this initial early-week shortwave. While a weak QPF signal lingers with the 12z GFS across southern Virginia and northern North Carolina on Monday, precipitation will have to overcome a dry antecedent airmass reinforced by building surface and mid/upper- level ridging. Most of the rest of the guidance remains in good agreement that this period remains dry. A better signal for measurable rainfall arrives with the next shortwave later in the week. However, forecast confidence in this potential welcome rainfall remains understandably low given the timing.

Aviation

As of 135 PM EDT Thursday:

VFR conditions at all area terminals to begin the 18z/29 TAF period, though some lingering Stratocumulus (4-6 kft AGL) was lingering across SE terminals (KORF/KECG). Winds have veered around to the S-SW inland at 5-7 kt, and are still NNE along the coast, but will eventually veer to the S-SE later today, remaining 5 kt or less. Light and variable with another potential round of fog/low stratus late tonight into Friday morning. Guidance has trended toward far SE terminals for greatest risk of IFR CIGs/VSBY tonight, mainly at KECG. There is a lower probability of sub-VFR conditions at both KORF and KPHF, so have held those terminals at VFR for now.

Outlook: Other than some potential for patchy AM fog, dry weather and VFR conditions returns each morning through Sunday. Remaining dry through the weekend.

Marine

As of 310 PM EDT Thursday:

Key Messages:

- N-NW winds increase later Friday behind a cold front, with Small Craft Advisories likely for most zones Friday night through early Saturday.

High pressure is centered well off the Mid-Atlantic coast this aftn, but is still ridging well back to the W. The wind is generally NE and less than 10kt, but is very light and locally variable across the northern tier of the area. Seas range from 2-3ft N to 3-4ft S where there is some lingering swell. High pressure slides farther offshore tonight with the wind becoming SW 5-10kt. The wind becomes NW Friday as a cold front approaches from the N. However, the wind will remain light, generally 5-10kt given limited mixing as the low- level airmass will be rather warm. Seas remain 2-3ft N to 3-4ft S tonight, and then generally 2-3ft Friday.

Strong low pressure tracks ENE from eastern QB to Labrador Friday with the associated cold front dropping S along the Mid- Atlantic coast Friday evening. 1032mb high pressure then builds in from the NW late Friday night into Saturday. The wind becomes NNE 15-20kt with gusts to ~25kt behind the cold front for most of the marine area, with 10-15kt with gusts ~20kt for the upper rivers. Local wind probs for sustained 18kt are generally 60-80% in the Ches. Bay. Probs for 25kt gusts are around 50-70% out near 20nm N of Cape Charles and 60-80% S of Cape Charles covering more area in the southern coastal waters. Probs for sustained 25kt are basically non-existent. SCAs will likely be needed for the Ches. Bay and lower James Friday night into early Saturday, and the southern coastal waters Friday night into midday Saturday where NNE flow ~20kt typically results in 5-6ft seas. Farther N, it is a little more marginal for the northern waters, but seas may briefly reach 4-5ft. Winds/seas decrease thereafter with sub-SCA conditions expected Saturday night through the early part of next week.

Watches, warnings and advisories

MD: None. NC: None. VA: None. MARINE: None.