Kelford, NC 27847 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

Day one

This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Updated discussion.

- Fog potential returns late tonight, mainly inland.

- Rain chances early next week have trended down slightly.

Key messages

1) Partial inland clearing this afternoon gives way to returning low clouds and patchy fog tonight into Thursday morning. Seasonable temperatures persist through late week.

2) Dry weather prevails through Halloween. Rain chances late this weekend into early next week continue to trend downward.

Discussion

As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday:

KEY MESSAGE 1: Partial inland clearing this afternoon gives way to returning low clouds and patchy fog late tonight into Thursday morning. Seasonable temperatures persist through late week.

Latest analysis reveals ~1034 mb surface high pressure centered offshore of coastal New England, ridging southwest into the lower Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Aloft, upper-level ridging remains in place across the eastern Gulf coast, extending across the coastal Southeast.

Early afternoon visible satellite imagery shows persistent stratus and stratocumulus lingering across the Northern Neck, extending SW into the southwest Virginia Piedmont, mainly south of US-360 and west of I-95. Temperatures as of this writing remain held down under cloud cover in these areas, with warmer conditions in the low to mid 70s and partial sun along the coast. Low clouds will briefly scour out into this evening before redeveloping overnight, then scouring out again from NE to SW Thursday morning. Areas of patchy fog are also expected late tonight given the light onshore flow, yielding slightly milder lows mainly in the 50s. Highs Thursday range from the upper 60s across the western Piedmont to the low and mid-70s elsewhere.

The surface ridge anchors off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday and Friday while deepening low pressure remains suppressed near the Bahamas. Offshore high pressure allows low-level winds to veer SSW and become breezy Thursday afternoon through Friday. This return flow pushes highs into the mid to upper 70s Friday before another backdoor cold front drops across the area late Friday into Saturday. This boundary knocks temperatures back to near/just above climatological normal for the weekend, with highs in the mid-60s to around 70.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry weather prevails through Halloween. Rain chances late this weekend into early next week continue to trend downward.

A northern stream longwave trough flattens the upper ridge late this week, promoting quasi-zonal flow aloft heading into the weekend. Halloween continues to look dry, pleasant, and seasonable, albeit with increasing cloud cover as cooler air wedges back in from the northeast. This will yield a partly to mostly cloudy, cool, and dry Saturday evening, nearly optimal conditions for trick- or-treaters.

Thereafter, the medium range picture becomes more complex. While the pattern turns a bit more active next week, latest ensemble suites continue to struggle with timing/resolving precipitation placement. Guidance can agree that an anomalously strong West Coast upper low shifts east into the Plains by early next week. However, the 12z EPS and its machine-learning AIFS have each trended noticeably drier, or nearly completely dry, for early next week, keeping the bulk of overrunning moisture suppressed to our south. The 12z GEFS and operational GFS have trended toward the rest of the guidance envelope, but remain relatively wet outliers. Thus, while light overrunning rain remains possible for late Sunday night into Monday, probabilities for meaningful wetting rainfall continue to trend downward. Some better agreement exists that show additional shortwave energy and rain chances arrive toward the middle to end of next week as a broader trough develops across the Southeast. That said, given high spread at days 7-10, confidence in this remains low at best.

Aviation

As of 145 PM EDT Wednesday:

Conditions have largely returned to VFR across area terminals, though some lingering stratus/stratocu is maintaining IFR to low-end MVFR CIGS SW of RIC. CIGs trend back toward VFR all terminals by mid-afternoon through early this evening. Light NE winds 5-10kt continue through the afternoon, becoming 5kt or less overnight. Low stratus and fog look to return late this evening into Thursday morning over the VA piedmont, reaching RIC after 06z tonight. Some fog and potentially some MVFR CIGs possible at SBY/PHF late tonight. All terminals return to VFR by mid-morning Thu, with winds veering around to the S-SW inland, S-SE coastal terminals at 5-8 kt.

Outlook: Other than some potential for patchy AM fog, dry WX and VFR conditions returns each morning through Sunday. Remaining dry through most of the weekend, though some light rain will be possible later Sunday night into Monday.

Marine

As of 530 AM EDT Wednesday:

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories in effect through this evening for nearshore NC coastal waters for 5ft seas.

- Light winds prevail tonight through Friday. A cold front brings the potential for Small Craft Advisories Friday night through Saturday.

Strong high pressure centered along the New England coast will gradually drift to the SE and become anchored off the northern Mid- Atlantic coast tonight and Thursday. NE winds have backed off a bit since this morning based on latest obs that show ~10kt and gusts up to 15kt. Seas are still a tad elevated off the NC coast as buoy obs indicate 4-5ft seas. A Small Craft Advisory will continue through 7pm to cover this. Elsewhere, seas are 3-4ft.

Onshore flow in the 5-10kt range is forecast for late tonight through Thursday with seas slowly coming down to 2-3ft N of the VA/NC border. Low pressure lifts NE off the coast of Florida Thursday night into Friday, keeping seas at 3-4 ft for the southern ocean zones despite light winds. Winds turn to the NW at 5-10kt Friday the sfc high over New England is pushed east by another incoming high pressure from the NW. By late Friday night into Saturday morning, the next cold front is forecast to drop south through the local waters. The airmass is not particularly cold, but pressure rises are on the order 4-5 mb/6 hr as strong (>1030 mb) sfc high pressure builds SE from the Great Lakes. Probs for 18 kt sustained winds have increased and anticipate that these may go up more as the addition of the high res guidance arrives over the next few cycles. Have maintained elevated N-NE winds during this time, and expect SCAs may be needed for at least the lower Bay and southern coastal waters late Fri night into Saturday.

Watches, warnings and advisories

MD: None. NC: None. VA: None. MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.