Forecaster's discussionIssued 10/31/2026, 2:12 AM EDT
What has changed
Confidence in widespread precipitation is greatest from mid to late week next week.
Key messages
1) Much of the area should remain dry into early next week, then a system brings widespread precipitation chances mid to late week.
Discussion
KEY MESSAGE 1:
While clouds increase overhead, high pressure is expected to sustain dry conditions through the weekend. Despite relative humidity values lowering to around 25 to 35 percent each afternoon, light winds will temper fire weather concerns.
A slight chance (around 20% or less) of showers can't be ruled out along and west of the Ohio River as a shortwave passes by on Monday; however, the continued presence of rather dry air in the low-levels should forestall precipitation development across the bulk of the forecast area. Best potential for widespread precipitation chances arrives mid to late week when high pressure retreats east and a system directs a front towards the area from the west.
Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through the end of next week.
Aviation
VFR conditions are expected through the majority of the TAF period while cloud cover gradually increases overhead. Patchy river valley fog provides the one opportunity for sub-VFR restrictions at a couple of terminals early this morning.
Light surface flow is generally expected to sustain an easterly direction throughout the TAF period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY:
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low for AM fog; otherwise, high.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of fog may vary from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 10/31/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY: VFR overcast will persist into Sunday, with a slight chance of light rain showers near or west of KHTS and KPKB heading into Monday.
Watches, warnings and advisories
WV: None. OH: None. KY: None. VA: None.
From the National Weather Service; may be delayed. Not for life-safety decisions. In an emergency, call 911.
Next 6 hours
NWS hourly forecast
Now41°Partly Cloudy0%1 mph
5 AM41°Partly Cloudy0%1 mph
6 AM40°Mostly Sunny0%1 mph
7 AM40°Partly Sunny0%1 mph
8 AM40°Mostly Cloudy1%1 mph
9 AM43°Partly Sunny1%1 mph
Hourly details
Next 7 days: temperature chart, feels like, rain and snow amounts, sky cover, wind and gustsShowHide
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