Van, WV 25130 Weather

What has changed

00Z aviation discussion has been issued.

Key messages

1) Dry and slightly above seasonable weather dominates into the weekend. Rain chances returns to the forecast for the beginning of November.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1:

High pressure is settled in at the surface and keeping our atmosphere capped along with plenty of dry air in the column along with modest southerly flow.

This will prevent any precipitation through the rest of the work week as this dominating surface high pressure system will keep us shielded for now and moderate temperatures back to above seasonable.

This will subsequently keep overnight lows warmer to where the area does not have to worry about frost or freeze this week or the weekend.

Upper level ridging reinforces the fair weather out to at least this weekend or until Sunday.

A long stretch of dry weather comes to an end courtesy of a southern stream system forecast to impede the area on Sunday.

Chances for precipitation will spread across the entire area for a chance to get some impactful rain whether a wetting rain to mitigate potential fire concerns or an abundance of rain possibly raising some isolated flash flooding concerns only slightly.

Anomalously high PWATS for this time of year come into fruition by the impact timing of the aforementioned system. This system is forecast to take a northeasterly track up through the area and provided plenty of moisture to the area, however impacts are limited as of now.

Mainly thinking about flood prone or very low lying areas with poor drainage are of concern if values of precipitation increase across the area as we get closer to the time frame.

Models depart significantly on tracking and timing. As of now, nothing to worry about, but worth keeping on eye on and to see where the highest amounts of rainfall will be forecast.

Aviation

Fog is forecast to affect KEKN later tonight, with IFR/LIFR VSBYs possible. Fog is forecast to dissipate near sunrise, and is not expected to affect KBKW, KCKB, KCRW, KHTS, nor PKB. VFR next 24 hours otherwise, with calm, southeasterly winds becoming southwesterly by late Thursday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY:

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The extent and timing of fog may vary at KEKN tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE THU 10/29/26 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY: VFR is forecast Thursday night into Friday, with light winds shifting to the north by late Friday morning.

Watches, warnings and advisories

WV: None. OH: None. KY: None. VA: None.