Smithers, WV 25036 Weather

What has changed

The chance for rain late Sunday into early next week has been lowered. 18Z Aviation forecast discussion update.

Key messages

1) Dry conditions and above normal temperatures dominate through much of the weekend. The chance for showers returns to the forecast for some locations late Sunday into early next week, with a better chance for rainfall towards mid next week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1:

The extended stretch of dry and pleasant weather will continue across the region with mostly sunny and warm conditions today, with low/mid 70s across the lowlands (~10 degrees above normal). A weak cold front, currently across the central Great Lakes, will move southward into the area overnight, eventually clearing the CWA to the south during the day on Friday. The front will pass through mainly dry, with just the chance for a few isolated showers across the northern mountains w/ increased lift via land-forced ascent late tonight into Friday morning. Otherwise, patchy river valley fog across the deeper valleys of southern WV and southwest VA is expected later tonight, with increased BL flow further preventing fog formation overnight.

Thereafter, dry weather is expected area-wide through Saturday courtesy of high pressure traversing north of the region, with high temperatures generally 5-10 degrees cooler than today, albeit still above normal. The next chance for ISOLD to perhaps SCT showers returns late Sunday into Monday as a mid/upper level wave moves across the region. PoPs have steadily decreased the last couple of days in association with this, now generally in the 15-30% range, with dry low-levels being an inhibiting factor. Highs Sunday/Monday are progged for the upper 60s to low 70s across the lowlands, with mid 70s expected Tuesday/Wednesday in advance of the next system, which should provide a better chance of rain towards Thursday.

Aviation

Area-wide VFR continues today amid mostly clear skies. A cold front will sink southward into the area overnight, bringing with it some increased cloud cover. This should limit fog development to the deeper river valleys of southern WV and southwest VA, with the potential for fog also in the Tygart Valley. Did code in VLIFR fog at KEKN later tonight with medium confidence. In addition, stratus banking up against the higher terrain could result in some MVFR CIGs late tonight into Friday morning, mainly impacting KEKN, with a low probability of occurrence at KBKW/KCKB. An isolated light shower in the northern mountains around KEKN also remains possible. Any fog that develops lifts / scatters from ~1200-1430Z Friday morning, with stratus along the higher terrain steadily dissipating by late morning or early afternoon.

Light WSW to SW surface flow is expected today, with calm or very light WSW flow overnight ahead of the cold front. Light NW to NNE flow is expected on Friday following the passage of the front.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY:

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium late tonight into Friday morning with fog/stratus, otherwise high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may not develop at KEKN tonight. Brief MVFR CIGs could occur late tonight into Friday morning at KBKW/KCKB.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY: Patchy IFR conditions are possible with river valley fog Saturday and Sunday mornings.

Watches, warnings and advisories

WV: None. OH: None. KY: None. VA: None.