Ronceverte, WV 24970 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

Day one

This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Kept fire weather section to focus on potential burn windows today and again Thursday and Friday.

Blended in much cooler temperatures for tomorrow. Most hi-res and hi-res ensemble data show a low level cloud deck persisting much of the day tomorrow. This should keep temperatures from reaching NBM forecast highs.

00z aviation update.

Key messages

1) Dry and seasonable weather continues through the week. The first day of November is the next opportunity for rain.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry and seasonable weather continues through the week. The first day of November is the next opportunity for rain.

Dry weather weather looks to continue through the end of the month across the region as high pressure remains anchored across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states. A shortwave trough looks to flatten the anchored high pressure over the Northeast tomorrow, and push it off the coast of Massachusetts. As this occurs, a long easterly fetch off the Atlantic through the low levels is likely to lead to a low level cloud deck developing over the region early Wednesday morning. Above this low level cloud deck, upper level cirrus is also expected to envelope the region from the west thanks to convective blow off from the aforementioned shortwave trough. All of this extra cloud cover will likely keep temperatures several degrees cooler across the region compared to NBM forecasted highs with wedge conditions preventing this cloud deck from eroding until the afternoon hours. HREF guidance in addition to other hi-res guidance keeps temperatures several degrees cooler tomorrow compared to NBM, so have blended in these values for tomorrows temperatures.

Overall, as the aforementioned high pressure is replaced by an additional high pressure sliding into the Ohio valley Thursday into Friday, temperatures should rebound each day with cloud cover lessening areawide. In addition to clear skies, 500mb heights look to increase through the end of the week as upper level ridging builds across the southeast. This may bring a few locations near 80 degrees on Friday.

As for the next chance of rain. Models have been consistent with advertisement of a southern stream short wave to cross the country over the weekend, bringing moisture into the area beginning Sunday November 1st. Some rain may sneak in here late Halloween night, but all models still insist on dry conditions for the Trick-or-Treat crowd Saturday evening.

Strength of the initial wave Sunday appears weak, but models do indicate southeast upslope flow which should enhance the rain chance along the Blue Ridge. A series of disturbances are forecast to follow during the week, so it looks promising for additional rainfall, and this should help snuff the late October dry spell.

Aviation

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the remainder of today with a light east wind and clear skies. Cirrus should spread eastward across the Appalachian Mountains tonight, which should prevent any fog development. Meanwhile, moisture from the Atlantic Ocean amidst the easterly flow will bring some MVFR stratus towards the Piedmont. This stratus will become most prevalent at DAN, LYH, and ROA by early Wednesday morning. Ceilings should gradually lift during the day, but it may take until Wednesday afternoon before conditions return to VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK:

High pressure will keep VFR conditions throughout the rest of this week. The lone exception will be any patchy river valley fog in the mountains during the early morning hours. Winds should turn towards the northwest on Thursday before swinging back around to the east by Saturday. Clouds will decrease during Thursday but later increase from the west by Friday night into Saturday as a low pressure system approaches the Mississippi River Valley. This low pressure system could bring the next chance of rain and sub-VFR conditions on Sunday.

Fire weather

Dry weather is expected through the end of the month with near to above normal temperatures. The next appreciable chance for rainfall looks to be Sunday with additional opportunities for rain during the first week of November.

With respect to the next few days, looking at a day of full sun today, with mostly cloudy conditions Wednesday. Thursday and Friday appear to be mostly clear with Friday being the warmest with highs 10 degrees above normal.

Transport winds will be from an easterly direction today and Wednesday, then switch around to the west Thursday and Friday.

Pending wind direction, today, Thursday and Friday should be good burn days, with Friday being the best per the well above normal temperature forecast. Clouds will interfere Wednesday.

Watches, warnings and advisories

VA: None. NC: None. WV: None.