Raven, VA 24639 Weather

What has changed

Have added river valley fog into the forecast until ~10 AM this morning across the 'typical' locations. Fog will be locally dense in some areas.

546 AM update: 12Z Aviation forecast discussion update.

151 AM update: Light drizzle was added to the higher terrain Friday morning with a weak frontal passage. Better opportunity for rain arrives late in the weekend, albeit slightly slower than previous forecast cycles first anticipated.

Key messages

1) Dry and slightly above seasonable weather dominates into the weekend. Rain chances returns to the forecast for the beginning of November.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1:

The extended dry spell gradually comes to an end this week as upper level ridging drifts offshore beginning this weekend. Until then, mostly quiet weather remains center stage of the forecast. Today will feature ample sunshine and temperatures resembling slightly warmer than climatological norms for this time of year.

Upstream, a cold front was marked from Wisconsin and down into the Central Plains. This boundary is slated to pass through the forecast area Friday morning, prompting a brief period of drizzle along the higher terrain. Otherwise, the rest of the area should remain uninterrupted by this weak frontal passage.

The start of the weekend continues to remain on track from previous model cycles to be dry and warm. This should yield pleasant conditions for Halloween activities Saturday evening. Main changes to the forecast noted previously is a slightly delayed approach of rain spreading back into the area in response to an encroaching southern stream disturbance. Showers look to now press in from the southwest towards the second half of the day Sunday, but once it does, an unsettled weather pattern prevails into the start of next week.

Aviation

River valley fog development this morning at EKN and CKB will erode after daybreak. Otherwise, mostly clear skies and light and variable winds rule the roost once again today. A weak frontal passage overnight into Friday should not bode any flight restrictions to our terminals, but could promote some light drizzle along the higher terrain.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY:

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The extent and timing of fog may vary at KEKN tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY: No IFR conditions are anticipated through 12Z Sunday.

Watches, warnings and advisories

WV: None. OH: None. KY: None. VA: None.