Motley, VA 24571 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

Day one

This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Forecast and Aviation Discussion updated.

Key messages

1) Complicated forecast for next week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Complicated forecast for next week.

Forecast for Halloween and this weekend is pretty straightforward. Mid to upper level clouds are going to expand in coverage in the region and temperatures will be closer to seasonal norms. High temperatures for the next few days will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s with lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s.

After Monday, however, the forecast becomes a headache. A mid-level low over the Pacific Northwest is expected to split in two with a northern and southern piece. The southern piece is expected to increase in size and strength as it passes through the Rocky Mountains, consuming a weakening wave further to its south. The northern component is also forecast to move eastward along the Canadian-American border. Both of these synoptic scale features are likely to be over the Great Plains by around Tuesday. At this point, model guidance enters serious disagreement on timing and impacts to our area. Two (maybe even three) meridional aligned lows may end up forming across the plains and how they interact with one another will determine its affects on the Mid-Atlantic. The proposed scenarios are diverse as models suggest one stronger low overpowering its neighbor and redirecting its path and energy around it. These lows are still projected to continue eastward which suggests a chance of rain for the area, but it is far too early and unclear to know how much rain and for how long. Surface low pressure systems associated with this mid- level pattern could also send warm and cold fronts through towards the end of next week but the temperature forecast also remains uncertain until there can be a better model consensus.

Aviation

VFR conditions expected at all terminals for the next 24 hours. The only change in weather will be an increase in mid and upper level clouds as we head into the weekend. It will be too dry at the surface for any fog this morning. Winds will be calm to light from the northeast as a surface high begins entrenching itself into the mountains.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK:

VFR conditions will likely continue into early next week with quiet weather and continual cloudy skies. A frontal system looks to approach around the middle of next week and offer some gusty winds and a chance of rain. There is still a lot of uncertainty on the timing of this system but it's possible a warm front will increase southeasterly winds along the Appalachian Mountains with gusts up to 40 knots. A cold front may follow through by the end of the work week and may shift the wind direction (though weaker) from the northwest. The passage of these fronts may give us a few days of shower activity and sub-VFR conditions.

Watches, warnings and advisories

VA: None. NC: None. WV: None.