Iron Gate, VA 24448 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Today: Greater coverage of fog and stratus this morning with impacts to aviation. Dense fog is present in the Greenbrier Valley and IFR cigs along crest of Blue Ridge.

This Weekend: Lowered rain probability Sunday/Monday. Initial wave looks like a dud. May have to wait until the middle or end of next week for appreciable threat of rain.

Continue to maintain a fire weather section for those concerned with burning conditions.

Key messages

Dry weather is forecast through Sunday, trending wet next week with best chance of rain mid-week. Friday will be the warmest day of this week. Mild and dry for Halloween.

Discussion

Easterly low level flow off the Atlantic is resulting in considerable cloud cover, mist and fog along and east of the Appalachians this morning. This shallow layer of moisture is expected to dissipate, leaving us with mostly sunny skies this afternoon under dry High Pressure.

The next several days will continue to remain rather quiet weather wise, with upper level ridging and surface high pressure remaining fixed over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states. A front crossing the Great Lakes will fade and lose its identity as it passes over the northern Mid-Atlantic tonight. Its passage will bring winds around to the west-northwest for Friday, but no significant airmass change. If anything the west wind will provide a boost in temperature with downslope adiabatic warming helping to push the temperatures well into the 70s Friday with urban areas east of the mountains reaching 80 deg F.

For Halloween, upper level clouds look to push into the region from the next system that looks to move across the continental U.S.(CONUS). This should bring temperatures back down to near normal. Regardless, dry weather will continue through the end of the month leading to pleasant trick-or-treat weather for all the ghosts and goblins.

Uncertainty continues to develop with forecast Sunday and Monday for what had been looking like a potential rain maker. Latest 00Z GFS and ECMWF have trended much drier with respect to the initial southern stream wave early in the week and now focusing on a mid or late week opportunity for wetting rainfall.

With the exception of some mid-upper level cloud cover, both the GFS and ECMWF keep the region predominantly dry through next Tuesday as high pressure to our north looks to maintain enough dry air across the region within the low levels to prevent precipitation from falling. Any threat before then looks minimal and mainly confined to areas west of the Blue Ridge.

By the end of next week, there appears to be decent ensemble support in the GEFS and EPS ensembles for an amplified upper level trough digging south into the Gulf states before lifting to the northeast through the region by the Thursday/Friday timeframe. Timing and specifics on this system are still in question; however, widespread rainfall may be on tap for parts of the region for the end of next week as this system evolves.

Aviation

Areas of fog and stratus across the area this morning with impacts from the mountains to the coast. Widespread sub-VFR conditions were observed, and will likely persist until mid morning until the sun promotes mixing and dissipation of conditions. Expecting all terminals to transition to VFR for the afternoon.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected tonight and Friday. Exception will be a period of fog in the mountain valleys between 08Z-13Z Friday with impacts mainly to LWB and BCB.

Winds today and tonight are expected to remain light and variable.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK:

Friday is expected to be VFR with little or no cloud cover. Clouds increase over the weekend but look to remain AOA 10kft supporting VFR conditions through Sunday. Models have trended drier for Sunday through Tuesday. This should result in better flight conditions than previously forecast. The upper flow pattern is expected to amplify by the middle of next week with a fairly large storm developing over the central CONUS by mid- week: impacts to our region still in question.

Fire weather

Dry weather is expected through the end of the month with above normal temperatures today and Friday and near normal temperatures over the weekend. The next appreciable chance for rainfall looks to be the middle of next week. Models have backed off on any meaningful precipitation until then.

Friday is expected to the most favorable with respect to burning conditions, temperatures warming 10 degrees above normal. Some locations in the Piedmont may reach 80 degrees.

Transport winds will be near calm today. Friday will be the best day for ventilation and mixing, transport winds from the northwest.

Watches, warnings and advisories

VA: None. NC: None. WV: None.