Dante, VA 24272 Weather

What has changed

No significant changes to the previous forecast package were made at this time.

Key messages

1) Dry and slightly above seasonable weather dominates into the weekend. Rain chances returns to the forecast for the beginning of November.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1:

High pressure is settled in at the surface and keeping our atmosphere capped along with plenty of dry air in the column along with modest southerly flow.

This will prevent any precipitation through the rest of the work week as this dominating surface high pressure system will keep us shielded for now and moderate temperatures back to above seasonable.

This will subsequently keep overnight lows warmer to where the area does not have to worry about frost or freeze this week or the weekend.

Upper level ridging reinforces the fair weather out to at least this weekend or until Sunday.

A long stretch of dry weather comes to an end courtesy of a southern stream system forecast to impede the area on Sunday.

Chances for precipitation will spread across the entire area for a chance to get some impactful rain whether a wetting rain to mitigate potential fire concerns or an abundance of rain possibly raising some isolated flash flooding concerns only slightly.

Anomalously high PWATS for this time of year come into fruition by the impact timing of the aforementioned system. This system is forecast to take a northeasterly track up through the area and provided plenty of moisture to the area, however impacts are limited as of now.

Mainly thinking about flood prone or very low lying areas with poor drainage are of concern if values of precipitation increase across the area as we get closer to the time frame.

Models depart significantly on tracking and timing. As of now, nothing to worry about, but worth keeping on eye on and to see where the highest amounts of rainfall will be forecast.

Aviation

VFR conditions remain favored through the TAF period. The only exception would be at EKN who is anticipated to fog overnight. After 14Z any fog will then dissipate and VFR will be left in control once again areawide.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY:

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY: No widespread IFR expected at this time.

Watches, warnings and advisories

WV: None. OH: None. KY: None. VA: None.