Vansant, VA 24239 Weather

What has changed

No significant changes to the previous forecast package.

Key messages

1) Dry and slightly above seasonable weather dominates into the weekend.

2) The next chance for widespread precipitation is forecast for Sunday.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1:

The latest satellite imagery shows little in the way of cloud coverage with high cirrus coming off a low pressure system over to our west which is starting to invade. These clouds will advect in this evening and spread across the area overnight. The result will be little to no change in the forecast other than for some valley fog tonight mainly where areas decouple noticeably across the southern coal fields and northeast deeper mountain valleys. Fog will not be deterred by the high clouds although stronger surface flow will deter much in the way of fog formation elsewhere. Have thrown in a little fog to the forecast near the Ohio River up by Parkersburg as well going off of forecast persistence.

High pressure is settled in at the surface and keeping our atmosphere capped along with plenty of dry air in the column. This will prevent any precipitation through the rest of the work week as this dominating surface high pressure system will keep us shielded for now. Upper level ridging reinforces the fair weather out to this weekend. Plenty of southerly flow will keep temperatures on a slow rise to above seasonable into the weekend. This will subsequently keep overnight lows warmer than what we have been observing to where the area does not have to worry about frost or freeze this week or the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2:

A long stretch of dry weather comes to an end courtesy of a low pressure system riding off a wave from Mexico. This southern stream system is forecast to impede the area on Sunday. Chances for precipitation will spread across the entire area for a chance to get some impactful rain whether a wetting rain to mitigate potential fire concerns or an abundance of rain possibly raising some isolated flash flooding concerns slightly.

Anomalously high PWATS for this time of year come into fruition by the impact timing of the aforementioned system. This system is forecast to take a northeasterly track up through the area and provided plenty of moisture to the area. This could in turn create the possibility of isolated flash flooding even though we have been dry for so long. Mainly thinking about flood prone or very low lying areas with poor drainage are of concern if values of precipitation increase across the area as we get closer.

Only due to this system being southern stream along with bringing the bolstering deep south moisture to the area for Sunday into Monday is this raising a small concern for hydro. Also, this concern comes to play if the area is overrun by sufficient rainfall. As of now, nothing to worry about, but worth keeping on eye on and to see where the highest amounts of rainfall will be forecast to grasp a better understanding if flash flooding will be considered a real threat. Wouldn't be surprised if WPC hashes out a marginal threat for excessive rainfall for the area from Sunday to Monday, however as of the time of this writing this window reaches past the day 5 outlook.

Aviation

VFR conditions can be expected through the period with the exception of some late night/early morning dense river valley fog, mainly across southern West Virginia and southwest Virginia.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY:

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of fog could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 EDT 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY: No widespread IFR expected at this time.

Watches, warnings and advisories

WV: None. OH: None. KY: None. VA: None.