Dante, VA 24237 Weather

What has changed

00Z aviation discussion has been issued.

110 PM EDT update:

The chance for rain late Sunday into early next week has been lowered.

Key messages

1) Dry conditions and above normal temperatures dominate through much of the weekend. The chance for showers returns to the forecast for some locations late Sunday into early next week, with a better chance for rainfall towards mid next week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1:

The extended stretch of dry and pleasant weather will continue across the region with mostly sunny and warm conditions today, with low/mid 70s across the lowlands (~10 degrees above normal). A weak cold front, currently across the central Great Lakes, will move southward into the area overnight, eventually clearing the CWA to the south during the day on Friday. The front will pass through mainly dry, with just the chance for a few isolated showers across the northern mountains w/ increased lift via land-forced ascent late tonight into Friday morning. Otherwise, patchy river valley fog across the deeper valleys of southern WV and southwest VA is expected later tonight, with increased BL flow further preventing fog formation overnight.

Thereafter, dry weather is expected area-wide through Saturday courtesy of high pressure traversing north of the region, with high temperatures generally 5-10 degrees cooler than today, albeit still above normal. The next chance for ISOLD to perhaps SCT showers returns late Sunday into Monday as a mid/upper level wave moves across the region. PoPs have steadily decreased the last couple of days in association with this, now generally in the 15-30% range, with dry low-levels being an inhibiting factor. Highs Sunday/Monday are progged for the upper 60s to low 70s across the lowlands, with mid 70s expected Tuesday/Wednesday in advance of the next system, which should provide a better chance of rain towards Thursday.

Aviation

VFR will continue through the night for the majority of the TAF sites, with the exception of KBKW, KCKB, and KEKN. A weakening cold front will approach from the north during the predawn hours Friday, with a band of clouds potentially lowering into MVFR as it moves southeastward towards the higher terrain. Fog should otherwise be confined to KEKN, with BLO MINS forecast during the overnight hours before returning to VFR after sunrise. The MVFR deck will move off to the southeast after sunrise as well, with all affected terminals returning to VFR by 30/15Z. Calm winds will transition towards the north post-frontal passage, with a gentle breeze expected Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY:

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High through 30/06Z, then medium through the predawn hours Friday.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Reductions to CIGs and VSBYs may vary from the forecast at KBKW, KCKB, and KEKN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE FRI UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY: VFR is forecast to continue beyond 31/00Z, with high-altitude overcast arriving by Saturday morning.

Watches, warnings and advisories

WV: None. OH: None. KY: None. VA: None.