Horse Pasture, VA 24148 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

Day one

This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Aviation updated.

Dry conditions continue to look more favorable into the weekend and early next week. Increasing widespread rainfall chances by mid/late week.

Key messages

KEY MESSAGE 1: Warm weather is forecast through next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Trending wet next week with best chance of rain starting mid-week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Warm weather is forecast through next week.

Dry weather will continue across the area through early next week. Surface high pressure and upper level ridging look to remain the dominant features across the area for the next several days. A dry cold front will pass over the region later today, but not before afternoon temperatures warm into the mid to upper 70s.

Cloudy conditions moving over the area from an upstream system will lead to cooler temperatures on Saturday for Halloween and Trick or Treating festivities. Cooler temperatures will linger through Sunday, however these temperatures will still be above normal for late Oct/early Nov.

Heights build again by the middle of next week in advance of a deep trough moving through the central United States. Although increasing cloud cover is likely, increasing southerly flow will offset this, allowing temperatures to climb again to well above normal through late next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Trending wet late next week with best chance of rain starting mid-week.

All models have officially backed off on any widespread precipitation chances for the region early next week. High pressure will hold strong over the Mid-Atlantic, keeping most rainfall chances confined to the southeast states. Cannot rule out a few stray showers given increased southerly flow, but overall the best forcing and moisture will remain well to the south.

Guidance remains in agreement that a deep upper trough will dig south into the Gulf states by midweek, then move over the mid- Atlantic and into New England by late week. There also appears to be strong support for a much more favorable environment for moisture to be pulled north ahead of this aforementioned upper level trough into the region from the Gulf and Atlantic. While it is still too soon to discuss specifics of this system, it will likely be the next system to provide any meaningful widespread precipitation to the region. Timing and specifics on this system are still in question.

Aviation

Prevailing VFR through the TAF period other than some isolated early morning at LWB/LYH until sunrise. Approaching front and drier airmass does not favor as much widespread fog development this morning: so have kept any BR/FG out of the TAFs except at LWB/LYH.

Winds will shift to the northwest behind the front later today.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK:

Cloud cover will steadily increase over the weekend, though ceiling bases will hold AOA 10kft, preserving favorable VFR flight conditions through Sunday. By the middle of next week, the upper- level flow pattern will amplify significantly, spawning a sizable storm system across the central continental United States whose eventual impacts on the local region will remain to be seen.

Fire weather

Dry weather is expected through the end of the month with above normal temperatures forecast for Friday and near normal temperatures over the weekend. The next appreciable chance for rainfall looks to be the middle of next week. Models have backed off on any meaningful precipitation until then.

Friday is expected to the most favorable with respect to burning conditions, temperatures warming 10 degrees above normal. Some locations in the Piedmont may reach 80 degrees.

Northwest transport winds on Friday will lead to the best day for ventilation and mixing.

Watches, warnings and advisories

VA: None. NC: None. WV: None.