Union Hall, VA 24092 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

Day one

This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Raised temperatures slightly this afternoon through tonight to match observations and new model guidance.

Afternoon aviation update.

Key messages

1) Warm and quiet weather today, clouds and more seasonable temperatures return for the weekend into early next week.

2) Next chance of rain will be mid to late next week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Warm and quiet weather today, clouds and more seasonable temperatures return for the weekend into early next week.

A large surface high is ridging into the area from the Upper Midwest, while an upper-level ridge is across the Southeastern US. This combination is keeping mostly clear skies and well above normal temperatures across the area today. Highs are expected to reach into the 70s for the mountains and into the low 80s for the Piedmont. A dry cold front will sweep through this afternoon and evening, which will keep breezy conditions in place with gusts up to 20 mph. Behind the front, temperatures will drop around 10-15 degrees for tomorrow, returning to around normal for this time of year. Clouds will also increase late tomorrow afternoon, as an inverted trough forms along the Ohio River Valley. Halloween night will be dry and seasonable, though heavy cloud cover and light winds will add to the spookiness.

High pressure will "wedge" in east of the Appalachians this weekend, but temperatures will still remain around normal due to the flow coming off of the Atlantic Ocean rather than from the Northeast. The clouds stick around through the weekend and into early next week, with temperatures remaining slightly above normal.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Next chance of rain will be mid to late next week.

The dry weather is expected to continue through at least Tuesday, which would be the 17th consecutive day with no rainfall across most of the area. While that is nowhere near a record, it is noteworthy. The system that was expected to impact our area early next week is expected to remain off to our south. Rain chances slightly increase on Wednesday, with a better chance on Thursday.

A large upper-level trough will dive down across the central CONUS, and move east into our area. Models are beginning to hint at the system weakening as it arrives, though confidence this far out remains low. In addition, the synoptic setup could be quite complex, as there may be an additional offshore low pressure system that could affect the approaching system from the west. Regardless, mid to late next week is likely to be the best chance of rain in the last three weeks. The system moves through and out of the area by next weekend.

Aviation

VFR conditions look to remain across all terminals as a much drier airmass has started to move into the area. These dry conditions will keep any fog and low stratus from developing across the region through the TAF period. By the end of the TAF period, some upper level cirrus looks to push into the area; however, operationally this will have no impact on any terminals. Winds will predominantly remain out of the northwest today at around 5-10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots through 00 UTC; however, a wind shift to out of the northeast for LYH, DAN, ROA, and BCB is expected by 12-15 UTC Saturday. Both LWB and BLF look to transition to an easterly/ southeasterly by the 12-15 UTC timeframe as well.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK:

Cloud cover will steadily increase over the weekend, though ceiling bases will hold above 10kft, preserving favorable VFR flight conditions through Sunday. By the middle of next week, the upper- level flow pattern will amplify significantly, spawning a sizable storm system across the central continental United States with restrictions likely to develop across the area.

Watches, warnings and advisories

VA: None. NC: None. WV: None.