Roanoke, VA 24022 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

Day one

This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Updated Aviation.

Maintaining a fire weather section for those concerned with burning conditions.

Key messages

Dry weather is forecast through Saturday, trending wet for Sunday and persisting through the first full week of November. Friday will be the warmest day of this week.

Discussion

The next several days will continue to remain rather quiet weather wise, with upper level ridging and surface high pressure remaining fixed over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states. Low level easterly flow with a long fetch off the Atlantic will continue to bring in slightly higher dewpoints into the Piedmont through Thursday morning, which will again lead to some low clouds developing across the area. These clouds look to dissipate by the 9-10am timeframe across these locations. The increased moisture may also lead to fog development across the area as well, with higher probabilities of this development expected across mountain locations. Beyond tomorrow, the area looks to remain dry, with minimal cloud cover expected through the end of the work week.

By Halloween, upper level clouds look to push into the region from the next system that looks to move across the conus. This should bring temperatures back down to near normal values after Friday's well above normal forecast high temperatures. Regardless, dry weather will continue through the end of the Month, leading to a pleasant trick or treat experience for all across the region!

Some uncertainty has developed in the forecast with early next weeks potential rain maker. Both the GFS and ECMWF keep the region predominantly dry through next Tuesday as high pressure to our north looks to maintain enough dry air across the region to prevent precipitation from falling. The ECMWF is the most bullish with this aggressive high pressure system and weaker shortwave across the deep south that the area completely stays dry through much of the next week. Current ensemble spread between both the GEFS and EPS have the area receiving less than 0.25 inches of rainfall areawide from this early week system. Expect rain chances to remain low for this system for now as models come into better agreement.

By the end of next week, there appears to be decent ensemble support in the GEFS and EPS ensembles for an amplified upper level trough digging south into the Gulf states before lifting to the northeast through the region by the Thursday/Friday timeframe. Timing and specifics on this system are still unknown at this time; however, widespread rainfall will certainly be on tap for the end of next week as this system approaches.

Aviation

Cirrus will impact the region this evening.

Looks like there will still be a potential for MVFR to IFR cigs late tonight in the Piedmont possibly as far west as ROA/BCB, but confidence is moderate. Some models have fog especially in the west, so overall the forecast favors either sub-VFR cigs and/or vsbys. Think LWB appears likely overall to have fog issues, and then BCB as the easterly maritime stratus layer may not make it this far west. Any low clouds and fog should erode between 12-15z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK:

Friday is expected to be VFR with little or no cloud cover. Clouds increase over the weekend trending sub-VFR Sunday into Monday as a storm system moves from west to east across the region.

Fire weather

Dry weather is expected through the end of the month with near to above normal temperatures. The next appreciable chance for rainfall looks to be Sunday even though models are backing off on amounts. Additional opportunities for rain during the first week of November, especially later in the week.

Thursday will be similar should have lessening clouds but mixing will be poor in the morning, but improving during the afternoon. Friday is expected to the most favorable with respect to burning conditions, temperatures warming 10 degrees above normal. Some locations in the Piedmont may reach 80 degrees.

Transport winds will be near calm Thursday. Friday will be the best day for ventilation and mixing, transport winds from the northwest.

Pattern change will bring above normal chance for rainfall November 1-7.

Watches, warnings and advisories

VA: None. NC: None. WV: None.