Smithfield, VA 23304 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Updated 18z Aviation/TAF discussion

Key messages

1) Outside of some patchy fog/low stratus this morning above normal temperatures return Today and Friday. Dry weather pattern is looking likely for Halloween weekend and into early next week.

Discussion

As of 320 AM EDT Thursday:

KEY MESSAGE 1: Outside of some patchy fog/low stratus this morning above normal temperatures return Today and Friday. Dry weather pattern is looking likely for Halloween weekend and into early next week.

Early morning weather analysis shows weak zonal SW flow aloft. While at the surface, a 1028mb high pressure sits off the New England coast. The pressure gradient over the area remains weak allowing for weak NE onshore flow to occur. Temperatures and dew points are ranging between the upper 40s to low 50s inland and upper 50s to low 60s across SE VA and NE NC. In addition, due to clear skies, higher dews, and light winds across the piedmont and interior SE VA and NE NC, a low stratus deck and patchy fog has developed. Through the rest of the morning the stratus and patchy fog will continue to expand and cause reduced visibilities. No SPS or Dense Fog has been issued at this time due to Visibilities staying up. However, if conditions worsen through the early morning an SPS or Dense Fog may potentially be issued.

For today, the stratus and patchy fog is likely to burn off by 10am giving way to another nice fall day. Highs today range from the upper 60s across the immediate coast and low to mid-70s elsewhere. By Friday, the high pressure will be pushed south due to an approaching cold front. This cold front is expected to push through the area by Friday afternoon. However, its initial push is to advect drier air as the cooler air lags behind. This will allow for Fridays temps to make a run into the upper 70s and low 80s. These temperatures mixed with low 50s dews will give way to RH of 35-40% in the afternoon across interior VA and NE NC. In addition, breezier conditions are possible especially across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore where the stronger upper level winds reside. Gusts upwards of 20 to 25mph cannot be ruled out. By Friday night the cooler air returns helping temperatures back to near/just above climatological normal for the weekend.

Dry weather conditions are forecasted to prevail through the late weekend and into early, as upper ridging builds over the region. Halloween continues to look dry pleasant, with increasing clouds ahead of of a weak cold front allowing for optimal Trick-or-Treating conditions across the region. Looking Monday into early next week the potential for the pattern to become slightly unsettled continues to remain low due to high pressure aloft sitting over the area. The deterministic models and their ensembles have completely back off on any rain chances during the first couple days of November. The next best chance of rain may potentially come late next week. However, confidence is low at this time due to how far we are out and some ensemble disagreement.

Aviation

As of 135 PM EDT Thursday:

VFR conditions at all area terminals to begin the 18z/29 TAF period, though some lingering Stratocumulus (4-6 kft AGL) was lingering across SE terminals (KORF/KECG). Winds have veered around to the S-SW inland at 5-7 kt, and are still NNE along the coast, but will eventually veer to the S-SE later today, remaining 5 kt or less. Light and variable with another potential round of fog/low stratus late tonight into Friday morning. Guidance has trended toward far SE terminals for greatest risk of IFR CIGs/VSBY tonight, mainly at KECG. There is a lower probability of sub-VFR conditions at both KORF and KPHF, so have held those terminals at VFR for now.

Outlook: Other than some potential for patchy AM fog, dry weather and VFR conditions returns each morning through Sunday. Remaining dry through the weekend.

Marine

As of 350 AM EDT Thursday:

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories in effect through 7 AM for nearshore NC coastal waters for 5 ft seas.

- Light winds prevail tonight through most of Friday. N-NW winds increase later Friday, with Small Craft Advisories likely for most zones Friday night through early Saturday.

High pressure is centered off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, ridging into the local area, with low pressure across Florida and the Bahamas early this morning. NE winds average 5-10 kt. Seas are still elevated off the NC coast as buoy obs indicate 4-5 ft seas so have extended the Small Craft Advisory through 7 AM to cover this. Elsewhere, seas are 2-4ft, and waves are mostly ~1 ft (~2 ft at the mouth of the Bay).

Low pressure lifts NE off the coast of Florida tonight into Friday, keeping seas at 3-4 ft for the southern ocean zones despite light winds. Meanwhile, a strong area of low pressure lifts E-NE from Quebec to Atlantic Canada on Friday, pushing a trailing cold front south into the local waters during the day. Winds turn to the NW at 5-10 kt, with winds potentially getting a little higher late in the day across the upper Bay and northern coastal waters. With the airmass remaing very warm through the day, mixing over the waters will be poor through the day, and higher gusts would be more likely over land Fri aftn. By Friday evening, significantly cooler and drier air surges south, with pressure rises on the order 4-6 mb/6 hr as strong (>1030 mb) sfc high pressure builds SE from the Great Lakes. Local Probs for 18 kt sustained winds are >50% for most of the local waters so have maintained elevated N-NE winds during this time, and expect SCAs will be needed for all but the upper rivers Fri night into early Saturday, potentially lingering through most of the day for the southern coastal waters and mouth of the Bay. Winds/seas decrease thereafter with sub-SCA conditions expected Sat night through the early part of next week.

Watches, warnings and advisories

MD: None. NC: None. VA: None. MARINE: None.