Mathews, VA 23138 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

SPS for Fog has been issued through 9am for southern and interior southeast Virginia and interior NE North Carolina.

Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the nearshore NC coastal waters through this evening.

Key messages

1) Slightly cooler today then above normal temperatures return Thursday through Friday. Uncertainty remains for the potential for rain this weekend.

Discussion

As of 335 AM EDT Wednesday:

KEY MESSAGE 1: Slightly cooler today then above normal temperatures return Thursday through Friday. Uncertainty remains for the potential for rain this weekend.

Early morning weather analysis weak upper level ridge over west- central Gulf coast to the Great Lakes and an upper trough over the NW CONUS. At the surface, a 1034mb high pressure sits over New England . The pressure gradient over the area remains weak allowing for weak onshore flow. Temperatures and dew points are much higher than the previous due to the onshore flow and are ranging between the upper 40s to low 50s. In addition, due to clear skies, higher dews, and light winds low stratus and patchy fog has developed across SE VA and NE NC. Through the rest of the morning the stratus and patchy fog will develop across the piedmont possibly causing reduced visibilities. An SPS has been issued at this time due to visibilities dropping below a mile across southern and interior southeast Virginia and interior NE North Carolina. However, if conditions worsen across the area through the early morning the SPS maybe expanded or Dense Fog may potentially be issued.

For today, the low stratus is expected to hang on across the piedmont as a CAD builds across the area. This will likely cause temperatures to struggle to get out of the middle to upper 60s as the SE the cloud cover is expected to break early allowing for temps to warm near 70. If the could deck across the piedmont breaks early a run near the 70s cannot be ruled out in the piedmont. However, the confidence is low as the NAM (handles CAD well) is holding onto much low temps. The high will then eventually anchor off the southern New England to Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and Thursday while low pressure remains suppressed well south near the Bahamas. With the high pressure offshore, SSW will allow for highs to potentially reach the the middle to upper 70s Thursday and Friday.

Dry weather conditions are forecasted to prevail through the late weekend, as upper ridging builds over the region. By Friday and into the weekend, a northern stream shortwave traversing central Canada will flatten the upper pattern. Halloween continues to look dry pleasant, and mild with increasing clouds ahead of of a weak cold front allowing for optimal Trick-or-Treating conditions across the region. Looking Monday into early next week the potential for the pattern to become slightly unsettled continues to remain low. The latest 00z/28 ensembles continue to hint on a weak system moving across the area during the first couple days of November. However, at this time the ensembles continue to remain in disagreement on amounts of precipitation and or if there will be any precip. The GEFS and Canadian ensembles have roughly 30-50% of rainfall greater than .1" while the GFS-AI, EURO-AI, and the EURO has little to no rain chances. With the disagreement this is continuing to lead to low confidence in any beneficial rainfall at the start of November and into early next week.

Aviation

As of 636 AM EDT Wednesday:

A mix of MVFR and IFR conditions have been noted across all terminals early this morning. Low stratus and patchy fog has developed primarily across VA and NC. These conditions are forecasted to persist through the early morning hours and possibly last a couple hours after 12z. By late morning the patchy fog is likely to dissipate and the CIGS will increase. However, cloud cover will likely persist but will cloud bases will be VFR as the day progresses. Winds today will then increase out of the NE by late morning and be around 5-10kt.

Outlook: Other than some potential for patchy AM fog, dry WX and VFR conditions returns each morning through Sunday. Remaining dry through most of the weekend, though some light rain will be possible later Sunday and Monday.

Marine

As of 530 AM EDT Wednesday:

Key Messages:

- Onshore flow remains elevated today, have raised SCAs for NC coastal waters for 5 ft seas.

- Light winds prevail tonight through Friday. A cold front brings the potential for Small Craft Advisories Friday night through Saturday.

Strong high pressure centered along the New England coast will gradually drift to the SE and become anchored off the northern md-Atlantic coast tonight and Thursday. Onshore flow, averaging 10-15 kt prevails early this morning, with seas around 3 ft across the northern coastal waters, and ~4 ft to the south. The buoys in the 0-20 NM offshore NC waters are ~5 ft and may increase further later today as E-NE swell in association with low pressure over FL and the Bahamas continues. Have issued SCAs in NC through 7 PM (and this may persist through tonight and need to be extended).

Otherwise, winds will slowly diminish by tonight, and especially Thursday through Friday as the sfc high continues to weaken and become centered into the region. Low pressure lifts NE off the coast of Florida Thursday night into Friday, keeping seas at 3-4 ft for the southern ocean zones despite light winds. It will be benign across the Bay and rivers with winds 5-10 kt or less Thursday and Friday. However, by late Friday night into Saturday morning, the next cold front is forecast to drop south through the local waters. The airmass is not particularly cold, but pressure rises are on the order 4-5 mb/6 hr as strong (>1030 mb) sfc high pressure builds SE from the Great Lakes. Probs for 18 kt sustained winds have increased and anticipate that these may go up more as the addition of the high res guidance arrives over the next few cycles. Have increased the N-NE winds during this time, and expect SCAs may be needed for at least the lower Bay and southern coastal waters late Fri night into Saturday.

Watches, warnings and advisories

MD: None. NC: None. VA: None. MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.