Winchester, VA 22601 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland.

Day one: Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven: Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Previous forecast remains on track.

Key messages

- 1) Areas of fog tonight into Thursday morning.

- 2) Above normal temperatures through the end of the week, with increasing clouds heading into the weekend.

- 3) On-and-off rain showers possible Sunday night through Tuesday.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Areas of fog tonight into Thursday morning.

Combined with overall light winds, areas of dense fog could settle in late tonight into Thu morning. Fog will likely be concentrated along and east of the Blue Ridge through 14Z, with areas further west likely seeing overall patchier fog. As a disturbance transitions offshore, clouds clear in the afternoon, with warm afternoon temps ranging in the low- to-mid 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Above normal temperatures through the end of the week, with increasing clouds heading into the weekend.

As the midweek disturbance transitions offshore, another brief period of upper-level ridging builds over the Mid- Atlantic between Thu afternoon and Fri. Winds could gust up to 15-20 knots throughout the day on Fri as temps range well above average with afternoon highs in the mid-70s.

An incoming cold front could bring overnight temps back down into the 40s between Fri & Sat across the metros, with temps potentially in the upper 30s over the mountains. Sat will see increasing cloud cover throughout the day as this front moves through the region, bringing temps back down to more seasonable daytime ranges in the 60s. No precipitation is anticipated for most of the weekend as this front slowly begins to track through into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3: On-and-off rain showers possible Sunday night through Tuesday.

High pressure should keep most, if not all, of the region dry through the heart of the day Sunday. Rain chances could arrive with an approaching low pressure system Sunday night and linger through Tuesday. It is too early to tell how much in coverage these showers will be each period, but some areas may not see any showers at all. All in all, rain amounts could be light. Temperatures will be seasonable Sunday, but then inch their way upwards Monday and Tuesday as a southerly to southwesterly wind brings in slightly milder air. Highs Sunday in the middle 60s for most locations, then climb into the upper 60s to near 70 for both Monday and Tuesday.

Aviation

Additional low clouds and fog could develop late tonight into early Thursday morning, with higher potential east of the Blue Ridge. There is still some uncertainty as to where exactly the low clouds develop, so some TAF sites show borderline IFR/MVFR conditions between 0800Z-1400Z Thursday depending on this uncertainty. Generally lowered CIGs/VSBYs with 00Z TAFs given trends. Fog could occasionally bring visibilities to 1-2SM during this time.

Visibilities return to VFR between 14Z-16Z Thursday, with clouds generally clearing by the afternoon. Winds flow southerly Thursday before shifting northwesterly on Friday, with gusts potentially up to 15-20 knots throughout the day. Winds diminish on Saturday before shifting southerly again.

VFR conditions Sunday through Monday night. Light southerly winds around 5 knots or so Sunday, becoming light and variable southeast to northeast Monday and Tuesday.

Marine

Light southeasterly winds through this evening, then shifting southerly overnight. Winds strengthen to borderline SCA thresholds Friday & Saturday due to increased vertical mixing over near- shore/narrower waterways, shifting northwesterly by Friday evening. Winds diminish by Saturday evening. Up until Friday morning, winds stay within 5-10 knots.

No marine hazards expected Sunday through Monday night. Winds south 5 to 10 knots Sunday, becoming east to northeast 5 to 10 knots Monday and Tuesday.

Tides/coastal flooding

Onshore flow Thursday & Friday could push sensitive shorelines close to flood stage, primarily during the evening tide cycles. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued until 11PM this evening for Annapolis in anticipation of minor flooding that could occur with the high tide.

Light offshore flow should lower tidal anomalies on Saturday before winds shift again on Sunday.

Watches, warnings and advisories

DC: None. MD: Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ014. VA: None. WV: None. MARINE: None.