Port Royal, VA 22476 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

Day one

This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Updated discussion.

Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the nearshore coastal waters north of Cape Charles through early Saturday, and remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, Lower James River and the southern nearshore coastal waters.

Key messages

1) Dry, seasonable weather for Halloween weekend continues into early next week.

2) Rain chances have continued to trend down for early next week, with no precipitation currently in the forecast. Rain chances may return by Thursday with above average temperatures to start the month of November.

Discussion

As of 240 PM EDT Friday:

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry, seasonable weather for Halloween weekend continues into early next week.

Early afternoon wx analysis shows ~1028mb high pressure centered over the upper Great Lakes, ridging SE toward the local area. The well-advertised dry cold front drops across the region over the next few hours, with winds becoming N-NW behind the frontal passage. No real cold air advection just yet: allowing for one more warm day across the region. 18z Obs were well into the 70s over the area, with some readings in the lower 80s across the piedmont.

CAA arrives tonight, with winds increasing and veering around the N then NNE tonight and overnight. Temps fall into the 40s in most areas, with lower 50s in coastal SE VA/NE NC with the flow off the water. Cooler, dry, and pleasant on Halloween, with highs in the lower to middle 60s. Given the cool, dry airmass and diminishing winds, temps fall off quickly (to the upper 40s-50s) during the evening. High pressure builds over the area tomorrow night through Sunday. Lows Sunday morning drop into the low-mid 40s by Sunday morning, with even cooler readings possible Monday morning. Turning slightly milder (upper 60s) on Sunday with some additional clouds Sunday morning ahead of an weakening shortwave approaching from the SW.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain chances have continued to trend down for early next week, with no precipitation currently in the forecast. Rain chances may return by Thursday with above average temperatures to start the month of November.

The chance for measurable rainfall continues to decrease for Sunday night into Monday despite the passage of the previously referenced shortwave. Despite considerable cloudiness, low-level moisture will be significantly lacking. Looking ahead, a gradual warming trend takes place early next week, as low amplitude upper ridging builds east across the region, as surface high pressure moves well offshore. Widespread lower-mid 70s appear likely on both days. Precipitation chances finally return to the forecast by next Thursday-Thursday night as a stronger low pressure system potentially tracks from the Mississippi River Valley to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. However, forecast confidence in this potential welcome rainfall remains understandably low given the timing.

Aviation

As of 210 PM EDT Friday:

VFR conditions across area terminals looks to persist through the 18z/30 TAF period. Generally light NW winds early this afternoon, becoming gusty out of the N-NW in the next few hours. A dry cold front crosses the area tonight, which will allow winds to become NNE late tonight through Saturday. The wind should remain high enough tonight to preclude any fog development.

Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected through at least Sunday. Remaining dry through the weekend and likely into early next week. The next chance for rain comes late next week.

Marine

As of 235 AM EDT Friday:

Key Messages:

- N-NE winds increase later this evening behind a cold front, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for most zones tonight into Saturday.

Early morning surface analysis shows that high pressure has moved offshore, while still extending back well to our west. A cold front is currently located just north of the Ohio River Valley. Wind over our local waters this morning is SW at 5-10kt, with waves of less than 1 foot in the Bay and seas 2-3 feet across the northern coastal waters and 3-4 feet along the south. The aforementioned cold front will approach our area and pass through this afternoon. Winds will become NNE behind the front, but remain below SCA initially.

Strong high pressure will build into the region later this evening into the early overnight hours. This will result in NNE winds increasing to 15-20kt with gusts to ~25kt across most of the local waters (10-15kt with gusts to 20kt for the upper rivers). Starting around 9-10pm, local wind probs for sustained 18kt winds become 60- 75% in the Chesapeake Bay. Probs for sustained 25kt winds are non- existent, but gusts to 25kt are likely across the coastal waters as well. SCAs have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and Currituck Sound for winds of 15-20kt and gusts to 25kt late this evening into Saturday morning. Waves in the Bay will pick up to 3-4ft during this period as well. SCAs have also been issued for the southern coastal waters (from Cape Charles Light, VA to Currituck Beach Light, NC) early Saturday morning through the evening hours for seas building to 5ft. The rest of the coastal waters are very marginal for any SCA thresholds as 5ft waves look to remain out closer to 20nm. Opted to leave them out of the advisory for now, but the next shift will take another look.

Winds and waves/seas will diminish throughout the day on Saturday, and high pressure will persist overhead into early next week with benign marine conditions. The area of high pressure looks to slide offshore on Tuesday ahead of the next potential weather system approaching the Mississippi River Valley.

Watches, warnings and advisories

MD: None. NC: None. VA: None. MARINE: Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632-634-639. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658.