* Added daily high temperature records for October 29th
Key messages
1) Rain-free and mild conditions through the end of October
2) Fire weather concerns increasing by Friday
Discussion
KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain-free and mild conditions through the end of October
Latest model guidance indicates the lengthy dry spell will last through Halloween and probably into the first few days of November. There appears to be a modest multi-model/ensemble signal building toward the possibility of a frontal type heavy rain/wind event sometime during the second half of next week around the Nov. 5-7th timeframe.
In the meantime, early morning fog/low clouds give way to a very warm afternoon Thursday with max temps challenging daily records in some locations (+10-20 degrees above the historical average).
October 29th also marks two historic weather events to impact central Pennsylvania in the past 15 years: Sandy in 2012 and the Snowstorm in 2011.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Fire weather concerns increasing by Friday
It has been almost two weeks since we've received any measurable rainfall across Central PA. The combination of drying fuels, increasing leaf litter, and low humidity air could result in an elevated risk of wildfire spread Friday and Saturday. Friday will be breezy in the wake of a cold front with marginally low afternoon RH values and max gusts forecast in the 20-25 mph range. PA Bureau of Forestry partners have indicated fuels are now sufficiently dry to support the issuance of a wildfire spread statement /if needed/ for Friday.
Aviation
VFR conditions prevail into tonight with high clouds peeling off the east. The guidance signal remains somewhat models for MVFR- LIFR fog and low clouds overnight into early Thursday morning. Therefore, have kept continuity with the previous TAF package with the 28/18Z issuance with highest chance/confidence in restrictions over the south central/southeast airfields.
Outlook:
Fri: A.M. IFR-MVFR ceilings north/west; bcmg VFR.
Sat-Mon: VFR most likely prevailing with some A.M. low cloud or fog restrictions possible.
Climate
Daily record highs for 10/29:
MDT 79/1946 Harrisburg ASOS IPT 77/1945 Williamsport ASOS AOO 77/1971 Altoona ASOS BFD 72/1999 Bradford ASOS STC 74/1950 State College COOP (7AM-7AM)
Watches, warnings and advisories
None.
From the National Weather Service; may be delayed. Not for life-safety decisions. In an emergency, call 911.
Next 6 hours
NWS hourly forecast
Now65°Partly Sunny0%7 mph
5 PM65°Partly Sunny0%6 mph
6 PM63°Mostly Cloudy0%5 mph
7 PM60°Mostly Cloudy0%5 mph
8 PM54°Mostly Cloudy0%3 mph
9 PM52°Partly Cloudy0%3 mph
Hourly details
Next 7 days: temperature chart, feels like, rain and snow amounts, sky cover, wind and gustsShowHide
What is the high temperature today in Lancaster, PA 17504?
The National Weather Service forecast for this afternoon calls for a high near 65°F. Partly Sunny.
Will it rain in Lancaster, PA 17504 in the next 24 hours?
The NWS hourly forecast does not show any hour with a 50% or higher chance of precipitation in the next 24 hours.
What is the 10-day forecast for Lancaster, PA 17504?
The first 7 days come from the National Weather Service forecast. Days 8 to 10 (Nov 4 to Nov 6) come from the NOAA National Blend of Models, with highs of 65°F to 67°F and up to a 43% chance of precipitation. Model guidance this far out often changes.
What time is sunrise and sunset in Lancaster, PA 17504 today?
Sunrise is about 7:30 AM EDT and sunset is about 6:07 PM EDT (calculated for the center of the area, within a few minutes).
What is the normal October weather in Lancaster, PA 17504?
At Lancaster 2ne Fltr Plt, the 1991 to 2020 normal high in October is 66°F and the normal low is 44°F.
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