Smethport, PA 16730 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

* Added daily high temperature records for October 29th

Key messages

1) Rain-free and mild conditions through the end of October

2) Fire weather concerns increasing by Friday

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain-free and mild conditions through the end of October

Latest model guidance indicates the lengthy dry spell will last through Halloween and probably into the first few days of November. There appears to be a modest multi-model/ensemble signal building toward the possibility of a frontal type heavy rain/wind event sometime during the second half of next week around the Nov. 5-7th timeframe.

In the meantime, early morning fog/low clouds give way to a very warm afternoon Thursday with max temps challenging daily records in some locations (+10-20 degrees above the historical average).

October 29th also marks two historic weather events to impact central Pennsylvania in the past 15 years: Sandy in 2012 and the Snowstorm in 2011.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Fire weather concerns increasing by Friday

It has been almost two weeks since we've received any measurable rainfall across Central PA. The combination of drying fuels, increasing leaf litter, and low humidity air could result in an elevated risk of wildfire spread Friday and Saturday. Friday will be breezy in the wake of a cold front with marginally low afternoon RH values and max gusts forecast in the 20-25 mph range. PA Bureau of Forestry partners have indicated fuels are now sufficiently dry to support the issuance of a wildfire spread statement /if needed/ for Friday.

Aviation

All TAF sites were VFR as of 00z Thu, with high clouds peeling away to the east. Hires guidance and the LAMP remain in good agreement that light SE flow overnight will bring moisture up from the Atlantic Coast through the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays and result in MVFR to LIFR fog and low clouds late tonight into early Thursday morning across the eastern airfields (IPT, MDT, LNS) with at least 50 percent confidence, and 20-40 pct confidence at AOO and UNV. Most guidance maintains VFR conds at BFD and JST, though there could be some fog and low stratus in the vicinity even that far west.

Conditions will trend sunnier/VFR through the day on Thursday, although low clouds look to hold on until the early afternoon along and east of the Susq River. Winds will be from the SW at 5-10 kts Thu afternoon. An approaching cold front will bring clouds and a few light rain showers across the NW after 00z Fri with restrictions possible in the north and west into early Fri morning. A period of LLWS is also possible between 00z and 09z Fri ahead of the cold front.

Outlook:

Fri: A.M. IFR-MVFR ceilings mostly north/west; bcmg VFR.

Sat-Sun: VFR most likely prevailing with some A.M. low cloud or fog restrictions possible.

Mon: Slight chnc for rain and restrictions, mostly west; otherwise VFR.

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.