Sugarcreek, PA 16323 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Update to Aviation Discussion.

Key messages

1) Quiet weather and above-average temperatures continue. Light rain possible north of I-80 Thursday night. Rain potential Sunday into Monday is decreasing.

2) Better chances of a wetting rain arrive next week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Largely dry weather is still forecast to linger through Saturday as large-scale surface high pressure persists. Temperatures today and Thursday will run some 10 to 15 degrees above normal. A mid-level shortwave passage this afternoon is only providing increased cloud cover.

Come Thursday night/Friday morning, a weak cold front is still progged to drop across the region. As this event has come into the range of the CAMs, precipitation potential north of Pittsburgh has increased slightly as moisture from Lake Erie becomes involved. Still, any rainfall is most likely to remain under a tenth of an inch.

Rainfall potential later Sunday into Monday continues to decrease, as models are now trending weaker with an Ohio Valley disturbance tracking south of the main 500mb ridge axis. A system that appeared to be capable of producing a soaking rainfall a few days ago, now has a 30 percent or less chance of producing 0.10" in our area.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Ensembles continue to converge on the idea of a strong closed 500mb low over the central CONUS by 12Z Tuesday. After that point, the low ejects northeastward towards the Great Lakes, and there is disagreement regarding the strength and timing of the resulting shortwave. However, there is still a notable chance of a wetting rainfall. Ensemble probabilities for an inch or more of rain are still in the 20-30 percent range for the LREF suite, while NBM probabilities are a bit higher. No flooding threats are anticipated given the recent dry stretch, but such amounts could mitigate any building fire weather concerns.

Aviation

Clear and calm conditions will likely prompt river valley fog early Thursday morning, mainly between 08Z and 12Z. VFR conditions are likely after sunrise, winds will be light from the south.

The probability of cig restrictions and very light rain/drizzle increases early Friday morning with a passing cold front. FKL and DUJ are expected to be impacted first. Cigs are expected to drop to MVFR (ranging between 2500ft to 1500ft). However, there could be a brief period of IFR cigs before sunrise on Friday. Sites south of BVI could hold onto VFR cigs if low-level moisture fizzles out as the front tracks south.

Outlook: Light rain could return late Sunday into Monday with large- scale disturbance.

Watches, warnings and advisories

PA: None. OH: None. WV: None.