Sugar Grove, PA 16312 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Friday through Wednesday.

Low humidity and breezy conditions could result in an elevated risk of wildfire spread on Friday.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

* No significant changes.

Key messages

1) Fire weather concerns Friday

2) Dry and mild conditions to start November

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Fire weather concerns Friday

It has been almost two weeks since measurable rainfall has been observed across Central PA. A cold front will sweep through the area from northwest to southeast overnight into Friday morning. There will be a few light rain showers downwind of Lake Erie in the northwest Alleghenies, but dry conditions are expected to continue for most of the forecast area. Friday will be breezy in the wake of the cold front with marginally low afternoon RH values and max gusts forecast in the 20-30 mph range. These conditions will likely result in an elevated risk of wildfire spread Friday afternoon with PA Bureau of Forestry partners indicating fuels are sufficiently dry/cured. Although relative humidity values will remain low through the weekend, lighter winds should limit the risk of rapid wildfire spread. Even still, individuals should limit activities that could start a fire. 99% of wildfires in Pennsylvania are caused by humans!

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry and mild conditions to start November

The latest model guidance indicates the lengthy dry and mild spell will last through Halloween and into the first few days of November. There continues to be a building signal toward an appreciable rain and possible wind event during the second half of next week.

Aviation

VFR continues across much of Central and NW PA with varying amount of stratocu and altocu clouds streaming east in a weak low-mid level warm advection pattern ahead of a weak cold front. Periods of MVFR cigs will occur at KBFD into early this afternoon as llvl moisture off Lake Erie is lifted over the higher terrain. Locally dense fog will occur through the rest of the overnight across portions of the Lower Susq Valley where skies will stay mostly clear with near calm wind.

LLWS will be present until around sunrise today at all airfields with generally light to near calm sfc wind. As vertical mixing increases in the wake of the aforementioned cold front during the late morning through the afternoon hours, NW wind gusts in the upper teens to low 20s (KTS) will be mixed down to the sfc.

VFR will follow in all areas during the afternoon and Friday night, though a return back to high end MVFR is expected at KBFD after 23Z Friday.

Outlook:

Sat-Tue: A.M. valley fog; otherwise VFR.

Climate

NOTE: October 29th is the anniversary of two historic weather events to impact central Pennsylvania in the past 15 years: Sandy in 2012 and the heavy/wet early season Snowstorm in 2011.

Daily record highs for 10/29:

MDT 79/1946 Harrisburg ASOS IPT 77/1945 Williamsport ASOS AOO 77/1971 Altoona ASOS BFD 72/1999 Bradford ASOS STC 74/1950 State College COOP (7AM-7AM)

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.