Smicksburg, PA 16256 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Updated for 00z TAFs. Reduced key messages given minimal impacts expected over the next 7 days.

Key messages

1) Dry weather persists before rain chances increase later next week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Surface high pressure has regained control of the upper Ohio River Valley and will combine with gradual height rises aloft ensure more days without rain. Temperature will hold around 5 degrees above normal again on Saturday despite cool advection before rising well above normal (10+ degrees higher than the daily average) starting Sunday.

Initial rain chances coincided with the eastward movement of a trough currently entering the Central Plains, but ensemble guidance continues to trend it towards a more muted/subtle wave that sags south/southwest of the region for the Monday/Tuesday period. Any rain chances those days (mainly Tuesday) would be with a nominal warm front lifting through the region as the ridge re-amplifies in conjunction with a secondary trough deepening over the Intermountain West. Rain chances increase Wednesday and beyond with that trough moving eastward, but cluster analysis shows a large variance in its shape/timing/depth that could portend further delays in the return of rain. Regardless, concerns about impactful weather is very low as ensemble mean RUNTIME accumulation (not just 24-hour, but full 7-day accumulation) shows only 10-30% probability of exceeding 1" around the area. So even if the rain finally does arrive, it is unlikely to pose much threat.

Aviation

VFR is expected to continue predominantly through TAF period. As surface high pressure settles in overhead, wind will go variable to calm overnight across the board. Despite some encroaching high-level clouds, expect that we will be able to radiate pretty well before they really thicken up with overnight lows much cooler than those of 24 hours ago. That being the case, expect that we'll get river valley fog development in the latter half of the overnight hours. REFS probability for any fog development lights up in the valleys north of Pittsburgh, so have included TEMPOs to low end VFR and high end IFR for FKL and DUJ, respectively. Think that farther southwest, slightly closer to the periphery of the high, there will be just a touch more persistent variable breeze which should preclude widespread fog development elsewhere.

With the high not moving much tomorrow, expect light wind less than 5 knots with a prevailing easterly direction. Upper level clouds will thicken and gradually lower some through the day, but VFR prevails.

Outlook: Outside of any early morning river valley fog on Saturday, VFR is expected into early next week. A disturbance will likely bring an increase in mid level clouds Sunday night and Monday, with only a slight chance of rain.

Watches, warnings and advisories

PA: None. OH: None. WV: None.