Dayton, PA 16222 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Update to Key Messages.

Key messages

1) Light rain/drizzle possible tonight into tomorrow morning with cold front.

2) Better chances of a wetting rain arrive late next week

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Outside of valley fog this morning, quiet and dry weather will persist through sunset under high pressure.

A cold front currently moving across the Great Lakes will continue advancing into the Ohio River Valley over the next 24 hours. Limited moisture along the boundary will keep precipitation chances low, with only spotty light rain early Friday morning. Rainfall amounts will generally range from a trace to a tenth of an inch north of I-70 and along the ridges. Drier conditions will return late Friday morning, although clouds may linger. Despite the frontal passage, temperatures will remain slightly above average.

A weak disturbance is expected to move through the region late Sunday into Monday. However, weak forcing and limited moisture should keep rainfall totals below 0.25 inches.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Ensemble guidance continues to indicate the development of a closed 500-mb low over the central CONUS Tuesday into Wednesday, with the potential for the system to eject northeastward toward the Great Lakes thereafter. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the track and strength of this disturbance late into the week. If the system tracks near the region, wetting rainfall and breezy conditions would be the most likely impacts. However, the overall risk of flooding remains low, with the probabilities below 30%, given our recent dry stretch.

Aviation

Clear and calm conditions will likely prompt river valley fog early Thursday morning, mainly between 08Z and 12Z. VFR conditions are likely after sunrise, winds will be light from the south.

The probability of cig restrictions and very light rain/drizzle increases early Friday morning with a passing cold front. FKL and DUJ are expected to be impacted first. Cigs are expected to drop to MVFR (ranging between 2500ft to 1500ft). However, there could be a brief period of IFR cigs before sunrise on Friday. Sites south of BVI could hold onto VFR cigs if low-level moisture fizzles out as the front tracks south.

Outlook: Light rain could return late Sunday into Monday with large- scale disturbance.

Watches, warnings and advisories

PA: None. OH: None. WV: None.