New Castle Northwest, PA 16105 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

Day one

This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Update to Key Messages.

Key messages

1) 11 days and counting without measurable precipitation at the office. A weak cold front may end this streak for areas north of the city tonight.

2) Better chances of a wetting rain arrive late next week but large uncertainty remains.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Quiet, dry and warm conditions continue once again today. We are up to 11 days with no precipitation at the office.

A weak cold front is currently dropping through MI and is expected to continue a slow eastward advance through the region overnight. A very dry pre-frontal environment and limited moisture along the front itself limits rain chances with REFS probabilities of measurable precipitation not rising above 40% until you get north of I-80. Between I-80 and US-422, 10-40% probabilities indicate the chance for a sprinkle or two but it is expected that the dry streak at the office will continue.

Models have also taken a step back on anticipated rain this weekend, depicting a weaker overall wave struggling to appreciably move eastward under a building rex block. As such, any rain for the region with that wave may be pushed into Sunday night or Monday, if occuring at all. If our dry streak continues through midnight Monday morning, we would reach 15 days without measurable precipitation at the office and move into the top 10 for longest such streaks ever. Only two such streaks have eclipsed 12 days this century (both ending at 13 days).

KEY MESSAGE 2: Longer range ensembles continue to tease a possible pattern change on the horizon as a closed 500-mb low develops across the central CONUS and progresses eastward. However, much is still needed in the way of agreement on timing and progression before we can meaningfully talk about it. Clustered ensembles are in good agreement out to Monday, showing a large open wave trough sat across the Rockies. By Tuesday, solutions diverge on depth and speed of the wave as ~70% close off the low while ~30% keep it an open wave. This makes speculation about the long- range forecast difficult but likely hints at our warm, dry and calm weather continuing into at least early to perhaps the middle of next week. If consensus on the track and movement of this low increases then we can begin to talk about a possible pattern change over to cooler, wetter and breezier conditions.

Aviation

VFR conditions are forecast into the evening hours, with patches of mid and upper clouds. Southwest wind will continue at around 10 knots this afternoon, with a few gusts between 15 and 20 knots expected.

An approaching cold front crosses the region tonight, with impacts mainly limited to cloud cover. A few light rain showers are possible north of I-80, and PROB30 groups were included at FKL/DUJ for this. Ceilings drop to MVFR behind the boundary, impacting FKL/DUJ after 06Z. BVI, PIT, and AGC could see such restrictions toward sunrise, but confidence in sufficient low- level that far south remains low. The onset of daytime mixing on Friday should allow VFR conditions to return, with scattered cumulus and light northwest wind by midday.

Outlook: Restrictions and a better chance of a more widespread light rain could return late Sunday into Monday with a large-scale disturbance.

Watches, warnings and advisories

PA: None. OH: None. WV: None.