Armagh, PA 15929 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Rainfall potential north of I-80 Thursday night has increased slightly. Also, expected rainfall totals during the Sunday- Monday period continue their downward trend.

Key messages

1) Quiet weather and above-average temperatures continue. Light rain possible north of I-80 Thursday night. Rain potential Sunday into Monday is decreasing.

2) Better chances of a wetting rain arrive next week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Largely dry weather is still forecast to linger through Saturday as large-scale surface high pressure persists. Temperatures today and Thursday will run some 10 to 15 degrees above normal. A mid-level shortwave passage this afternoon is only providing increased cloud cover.

Come Thursday night/Friday morning, a weak cold front is still progged to drop across the region. As this event has come into the range of the CAMs, precipitation potential north of Pittsburgh has increased slightly as moisture from Lake Erie becomes involved. Still, any rainfall is most likely to remain under a tenth of an inch.

Rainfall potential later Sunday into Monday continues to decrease, as models are now trending weaker with an Ohio Valley disturbance tracking south of the main 500mb ridge axis. A system that appeared to be capable of producing a soaking rainfall a few days ago, now has a 30 percent or less chance of producing 0.10" in our area.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Ensembles continue to converge on the idea of a strong closed 500mb low over the central CONUS by 12Z Tuesday. After that point, the low ejects northeastward towards the Great Lakes, and there is disagreement regarding the strength and timing of the resulting shortwave. However, there is still a notable chance of a wetting rainfall. Ensemble probabilities for an inch or more of rain are still in the 20-30 percent range for the LREF suite, while NBM probabilities are a bit higher. No flooding threats are anticipated given the recent dry stretch, but such amounts could mitigate any building fire weather concerns.

Aviation

VFR conditions and light winds are expected for much of the next 24 hours. However, light winds and clear skies point towards fog development again tonight. TEMPOs have been included at FKL, DUJ and BVI, where model agreement on impacts is highest. Models do have lower probabilities down towards PIT and AGC but confidence is lower here.

Late Thursday night, a passing cold front over the Great Lakes may return cig restrictions mainly to the northern ports.

Outlook: Light rain is expected to return late Sunday into Monday with large-scale disturbance.

Watches, warnings and advisories

PA: None. OH: None. WV: None.