Smicksburg, PA 15763 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Update to Key Messages.

Key messages

1) Light rain/drizzle possible tonight into tomorrow morning with cold front.

2) Better chances of a wetting rain arrive late next week

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Outside of valley fog this morning, quiet and dry weather will persist through sunset under high pressure.

A cold front currently moving across the Great Lakes will continue advancing into the Ohio River Valley over the next 24 hours. Limited moisture along the boundary will keep precipitation chances low, with only spotty light rain early Friday morning. Rainfall amounts will generally range from a trace to a tenth of an inch north of I-70 and along the ridges. Drier conditions will return late Friday morning, although clouds may linger. Despite the frontal passage, temperatures will remain slightly above average.

A weak disturbance is expected to move through the region late Sunday into Monday. However, weak forcing and limited moisture should keep rainfall totals below 0.25 inches.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Ensemble guidance continues to indicate the development of a closed 500-mb low over the central CONUS Tuesday into Wednesday, with the potential for the system to eject northeastward toward the Great Lakes thereafter. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the track and strength of this disturbance late into the week. If the system tracks near the region, wetting rainfall and breezy conditions would be the most likely impacts. However, the overall risk of flooding remains low, with the probabilities below 30%, given our recent dry stretch.

Aviation

Outside of patchy fog, mainly impacting DUJ through 14Z, VFR conditions are forecast into the evening hours. Southwest wind will pick up to around 10 knots later this morning, with some gusts between 15 and 20 knots expected.

An approaching cold front crosses the region tonight, with impacts mainly limited to cloud cover. A few light rain showers are possible north of I-80, and PROB30 groups were included at FKL/DUJ for this. Ceilings drop to MVFR behind the boundary, impacting FKL/DUJ after 06Z. BVI, PIT, and AGC could see such restrictions toward sunrise, but confidence in sufficient low- level is lower that far south.

Outlook: Restrictions and a better chance of a more widespread light rain could return late Sunday into Monday with a large-scale disturbance.

Watches, warnings and advisories

PA: None. OH: None. WV: None.