Connellsville, PA 15425 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Reduced key messages given minimal impacts expected over the next 7 days.

Key messages

1) Dry weather persists before rain chances increase later next week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Surface high pressure has regained control of the upper Ohio River Valley and will combine with gradual height rises aloft ensure more days without rain. Temperature will hold around 5 degrees above normal today/tomorrow despite cool advection before rising well above normal (10+ degrees higher than the daily average) starting Sunday.

Initial rain chances coincided with the eastward movement of a trough currently entering the Central Plains, but ensemble guidance continues to trend it towards a more muted/subtle wave that sags south/southwest of the region for the Monday/Tuesday period. Any rain chances those days (mainly Tuesday) would be with a nominal warm front lifting through the region as the ridge re-amplifies in conjunction with a secondary trough deepening over the Intermountain West. Rain chances increase Wednesday and beyond with that trough moving eastward, but cluster analysis shows a large variance in its shape/timing/depth that could portend further delays in the return of rain. Regardless, concerns about impactful weather is very low as ensemble mean RUNTIME accumulation (not just 24-hour, but full 7-day accumulation) shows only 10-30% probability of exceeding 1" around the area. So even if the rain finally does arrive, it is unlikely to pose much threat.

Aviation

Stratocu in cold advection and NW flow has slowly risen and fractured early this afternoon ushering in the return of VFR across the region. VFR is expected to continue through the 24 hour TAF window. NWerly winds are expected to be sustained near 10 kts across much of the region today, with gusts up to 20 kts possible. Wind and clouds diminish this evening as high pressure builds in. Morning fog looks possible early Saturday, mainly north for FKL/DUJ.

Outlook: Outside of any early morning river valley fog on Saturday, VFR is expected into early next week. A disturbance will likely bring an increase in mid level clouds Sunday night and Monday, with only a slight chance of rain.

Watches, warnings and advisories

PA: None. OH: None. WV: None.