Ellicottville, NY 14741 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New York.

Day one

Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

What has changed

No significant forecast changes with this issuance.

Key messages

1)Showers tonight, cooler and dry on Friday in the wake of the cold front.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers tonight, cooler and dry on Friday in the wake of the cold front.

Showers are developing across southern Ontario this afternoon and will be seeing an overall increase in coverage as they gradually work their way southeastward ahead of a cold front. Overall, QPF on the lighter side, and the main forecast question will be the potential for any embedded lightning. As of this issuance, no thunder in the forecast due to a marked lack of instability, but the chances, although very low, are non-zero given some moderate low/mid level flow. Showers exit after 05Z to the southeast with lingering low level clouds through the morning hours Friday. Cooler airmass filters in behind the cold front as high pressure builds back into the southern Great Lakes region for the end of the week and into the weekend. Temperatures will make a rebound back to above normal for the end of the weekend into early next week in dry weather as the warmer weather pattern remains in overall control.

Aviation

Southwest winds gust 20-30kts today ahead of a cold front moving in from the northwest. Cold front brings showers with vis/ceilings down to MVFR generally after 23Z. Visibilities improve to VFR after showers exit to the southeast while ceilings linger in MVFR through sunrise Friday.

Outlook:

Friday: After MVFR ceilings dissolve/lift, VFR expected.

Saturday through Tuesday: VFR.

Marine

Moderate southwesterlies early this evening will veer to the northwest tonight following the passage of a cold front. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions will briefly develop in the nearshore zones from Ripley to Buffalo for a few hours this evening before winds and waves diminish overnight. Small Craft Advisory conditions will last much longer in the nearshore zones from the Niagara River to Cape Vincent in the post-frontal WNW flow, lasting much of the time through Friday evening before diminishing from west to east overnight.

Much lighter winds and flat wave action will return for the weekend as high pressure drifts east from the Great Lakes to southern New England.

Fire weather

No measurable rain has fallen for nearly two weeks (11 days) in most of our region. The extended period of dry weather and sunshine has cured fine fuels and leaf litter, bringing some increase in wildfire risk. There have been a number of leaf, brush, and grass fires across the region in recent days.

A weak cold front passing through tonight should generate mainly light rain showers with rainfall amounts of 0.10" or less in most areas. Dry weather will then follow Friday and last through the weekend. As a result, fine fuels and leaf litter will remain very dry.

Watches, warnings and advisories

NY: None. MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ043>045.