Belfast, NY 14711 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, western and north central New York.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

What has changed

No significant changes with this update.

Key messages

1)Record warmth possible on Thursday.

2)A brief shot of light rain Thursday night. Dry weather then resumes and lasts through the weekend.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Record warmth possible on Thursday.

High pressure will continue to drift east of New England tonight through Thursday, with deep southwesterly flow in its wake transporting unseasonable warmth into the eastern Great Lakes. Highs will reach the low to mid 70s for lower elevations. With the expected warmth, some records may fall or be tied. See the climate section of the AFD below for the current record highs for October 30th.

Additionally, winds will strengthen Thursday as a 35 to 45 knot low level jet moves over the eastern Great Lakes. Poor low level lapse rates will prevent full mixing of stronger winds from aloft, but channeling down Lake Erie may still support gusts of 30-40 mph across the Niagara Frontier in the afternoon. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected elsewhere.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A brief shot of light rain Thursday night. Dry weather then resumes and lasts through the weekend.

A weak cold front nears the region Thursday, then crosses the eastern Great Lakes Thursday night. This system is moisture starved, but may have just enough forcing and moisture convergence to squeeze out a brief period of light showers. In terms of precipitation, amounts look very meager with only a few hundredths of an inch at best possible across Western and Central NY. Showers will exit before daybreak Friday, with high pressure then building back into the region later Friday through the weekend with another extended stretch of dry weather.

Aviation

VFR will prevail tonight through Thursday as strong high pressure drifts east of New England. A cold front will move into the central Great Lakes Thursday morning, then cross the eastern Great Lakes Thursday evening. Mid/high clouds will increase Thursday afternoon ahead of the front, but any showers will hold off until early evening with VFR continuing to prevail.

Winds will increase ahead of the front Thursday as a belt of 35 to 45 knot southwesterly flow aloft moves over the eastern Great Lakes. Poor low level lapse rates will prevent full mixing, but still expect gusts of 15 to 25 knots for much of the area, and 25 to 35 knots across the Niagara Frontier northeast of Lake Erie.

Outlook:

Thursday night: A few showers likely. Areas of MVFR CIGS with IFR possible across higher terrain.

Friday: Areas of MVFR CIGS early, improving to VFR in the afternoon.

Saturday through Monday: VFR.

Marine

Southwest winds will strengthen on the western flank of the departed ridge Thursday ahead of the approaching cold front. Small Craft conditions are likely to develop across portions of the lower Great Lakes later Thursday afternoon along and ahead of the front as southwest winds increase further.

Winds will veer to the northwest Thursday night through Friday behind the cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely continue for eastern portions of the lower Great Lakes, especially in the nearshore zones east of Hamlin Beach.

Fire weather

No measurable rain has fallen for nearly two weeks (10 days) in most of our region. The extended period of dry weather and sunshine has cured fine fuels and leaf litter, bringing some increase in wildfire risk. Luckily, the forecast does not show a significant overlap of strong, gusty winds and low relative humidity values through this weekend.

A weak cold front and weather disturbance should generate light and periodic rain showers Thursday eve-night, but resulting rainfall amounts should be less than 0.10". Dry weather will then follow Friday and last through the weekend. As a result, fine fuels and leaf litter should remain very dry.

Climate

Here are the record high temperatures for Thursday, October 30th.

Buffalo, NY 74 (1971)

Rochester, NY 76 (1896)

Watertown, NY 73 (1955)

Watches, warnings and advisories

NY: None. MARINE: None.