Castile, NY 14427 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New York.

Day one

This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

What has changed

No significant forecast changes with this issuance.

Key messages

1) Seasonal and mostly dry weather is expected through Saturday.

2) A warming trend is expected Sunday through early next week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonal and mostly dry weather is expected through Saturday.

A surface high will build across the eastern Great Lakes tonight. Cool northwest flow aloft will continue to support some lake effect and upslope clouds, but dry weather is expected. Lows will drop back into the 30s in most areas, with some 20s across the North Country.

High pressure will crest over the eastern Great Lakes Saturday, with dry weather, a return to sunshine, and near average temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A warming trend is expected Sunday through early next week.

Surface high pressure will move east of the region Saturday night. A southerly flow will support warmer weather Sunday with highs back in the low 60s. High pressure will move off the east coast early next week, while the westward extent remains across the Northeast. This will support a warm, and dry period through at least Tuesday.

A deep trough is expected to move from the Plains to the Mississippi Valley by mid-week. There remains high uncertainty in the evolution of a surface low and how quick moisture returns to the eastern Great Lakes region. Chances for showers begin to increase Wednesday with the potential for unsettled weather to continue through the end of the work week. Above normal temperatures are expected mid to late week.

Aviation

Cool northwest flow will continue to support areas of lake effect and upslope clouds tonight. CIGS in most areas will stay VFR, with some spotty MVFR across higher terrain. High pressure will build east across the Great Lakes overnight, then settle overhead Saturday. Subsidence and drying will bring an end to lake effect and upslope clouds with VFR prevailing.

Outlook:

Sunday through Wednesday: VFR.

Marine

Moderate northwesterlies will continue to produce Small Craft Advisory conditions in the nearshore zones from Hamlin Beach eastward through the first half of tonight before winds quickly diminish late.

Surface high pressure will build over the lower Great Lakes Saturday, then drift slowly east towards the northern Mid Atlantic states by Sunday. This will bring light winds and flat wave action through the weekend.

Fire weather

Rainfall amounts Thursday evening were 0.10" or less in most areas, with a few spotty 0.25" amounts. Another extended period of dry weather and warming temperatures is expected this weekend through the first half of next week. This will continue to result in very dry fine fuels and leaf litter.

Watches, warnings and advisories

NY: None. MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ043>045.