Farnham, NY 14081 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, western and north central New York.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

What has changed

No significant changes with this update.

Key messages

1)Record warmth possible today.

2)A chance of showers tonight. Dry weather then resumes Friday and lasts through the weekend.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Record warmth possible today.

Mild, potentially record breaking (see climate section) and dry today ahead of an incoming cold front. Winds will pick up today as a strengthening low-level jet of 35 to 45 knot moves over the eastern Great Lakes. That said: poor low level lapse rates will prevent full mixing of stronger winds from aloft, but channeling down Lake Erie may still support gusts of 30-40 mph across the Niagara Frontier in the afternoon. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected elsewhere. Otherwise: another mild day with Max T's peaking in the low to mid 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A chance of showers tonight. Dry weather then resumes Friday and lasts through the weekend.

A weak cold front will begin to cross the eastern Great Lakes late this evening and tonight. Decent forcing and moisture convergence will likely support some showers and maybe even a rumble of thunder as guidance shows MUCAPE values of 150-200 J/kg. Precipitation wise, amounts look very meager with most spots only picking up a few hundredths of an inch, with localize higher amounts. Showers will exit before daybreak Friday, with high pressure then building back into the region later Friday through the weekend with another extended stretch of dry weather.

Aviation

Southwest winds will strengthen ahead of a cold front today, expect gusts of 15 to 25 knots for much of the area, and 25 to 35 knots across the Niagara Frontier northeast of Lake Erie. Otherwise: VFR across all terminals.

Tonight: the cold front will cross the region with a few showers, possibly even an embedded rumble of thunder. VFR cigs will deteriorate to MVFR with IFR across the higher terrain overnight.

Outlook:

Friday: Areas of MVFR-IFR CIGS early, improving to VFR in the afternoon.

Saturday through Monday: VFR.

Marine

Southwest winds will pick up today ahead of a cold front nearing the Lower Lakes. Small Craft conditions are likely to develop on Lake Erie and the western portion of Lake America by this afternoon. Winds will veer to the northwest tonight through Friday behind the cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue for eastern portion of Lake America, especially in the nearshore zones east of Hamlin Beach. Winds and wave action will gradually subside Friday as high pressure begins to build in from the west. Light winds and waves expected Saturday as the surface high moves overhead.

Fire weather

No measurable rain has fallen for nearly two weeks (11 days) in most of our region. The extended period of dry weather and sunshine has cured fine fuels and leaf litter, bringing some increase in wildfire risk. Luckily, the forecast does not show a significant overlap of strong, gusty winds and low relative humidity values through this weekend.

A weak cold front and weather disturbance passing through tonight should generate mainly light rain showers, but resulting rainfall amounts should be less than 0.10". Dry weather will then follow Friday and last through the weekend. As a result, fine fuels and leaf litter should remain very dry.

Climate

Here are the record high temperatures for Thursday, October 30th.

Buffalo, NY 74 (1971)

Rochester, NY 76 (1896)

Watertown, NY 73 (1955)

Watches, warnings and advisories

NY: None. MARINE: None.