Smithville Flats, NY 13801 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and northeast Pennsylvania.

Day one

This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Guidance continues to trend drier through the first half of next week. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the current forecast with this update.

Key messages

1) A cold front will cross the region tonight, bringing a chance for some showers, especially for northern portions of the area.

2) Mostly dry conditions will continue from Friday through the middle of next week with near to above normal temperatures expected.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1:

A weak cold front will track across the region tonight, with a few showers possible from the NY/PA line north. The potential for showers will increase with northward extent with the I90 corridor receiving a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of rainfall. Shower potential will be better in these areas where there is closer proximity to a low level jet crossing the area, helping to increase forcing some. Otherwise the most notable feature with the cold frontal passage will be increased clouds and cooler temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s for Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2:

Behind the passing cold front tonight, a cooler airmass will push into the region, with lingering lake clouds through the day on Friday. High pressure will track from the Upper Midwest, across the Great Lakes and to the coast of New England from Friday through Sunday, providing dry weather for the period. A couple of lake showers can't be completely ruled out for Friday across northern portions of the area, but the dry nature of the airmass should limit the shower potential.

Continued ridging across the eastern portion of the CONUS through the middle of next week will continue the mostly dry pattern. There is a chance that a weakening trough and a nearby passing warm front may bring a couple of showers later Monday into Tuesday.

Temperatures will be coolest for Friday and Saturday with afternoon highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. From there temperatures warm to the upper 50s to upper 60s for Sunday through the middle of next week, with some near 70 values also possible at times for next week.

The next potential for more meaningful rainfall is expected for late Wednesday into Thursday of next week.

Aviation

VFR conditions expected through the rest of the afternoon with clear skies and WSW winds of 5-10kts. A cold front will move into the area from the NW this evening. Some scattered rain showers are expected to develop, but with dry air at the surface, restrictions are not expected to develop. Once wind shift to the NW and colder air moves over the warm lakes, lake effect clouds should develop and ceilings should drop to MVFR/Fuel Alt at RME/SYR/ITH buy mid-evening, lasting through the morning on Friday.

ELM and BGM will also see MVFR/Fuel alt restrictions starting after midnight as winds shift to the NW. Skies are forecast to scatter out to VFR during the morning hours, but may hold on into the early afternoon. Confidence was not high enough to keep the restrictions through the morning hours.

AVP will remain VFR through the period.

Outlook:

Friday Afternoon through Monday: Mainly VFR.

Watches, warnings and advisories

PA: None. NY: None.