Portlandville, NY 13747 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and northeast Pennsylvania.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Lowered dew points this morning. Increased high cloud cover this morning into the early afternoon before more sunshine arrives. Bumped up southwest winds slightly on Thursday, and boosted high temperatures in the favored valley locations into the low to mid- 70s. Increased west-northwest winds on Friday, with gusts between 20- 25 mph expected. Sunday is trending drier with more sunshine now.

Key messages

1)Mainly dry weather with above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. A few light rain showers are likely along and north of the Mohawk Valley Thursday night.

2) The next chance for rain showers will be for the early to middle portion of next week; although uncertainty remains on frontal timing.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1:

An area of high clouds will pass over the area this morning, through midday or early afternoon. Some filtered sunshine will likely make it through the rather thin high clouds, with more sun expected by late afternoon as the high clouds exit east. It will be warm, with highs in the 60s for most locations. Remaining mild tonight as a steady south wind develops. Temperatures only dip down into the upper 30s and 40s areawide, under mainly clear skies.

Sunny skies prevail on Thursday and southwest winds increase between 7-15 mph. This combined with 850mb temperatures reaching +10C will allow for high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid-70s, which is about 15 degrees above average for the end of October.

A weak frontal boundary approaches Thursday evening into Thursday night from the north. This will bring increasing clouds and a few showers; mainly along and north of I-90. Rainfall amounts will be very light. From the Twin Tiers south into NE PA no rain is expected. After the dry cold front moves through there could be some lingering morning clouds over Central NY Friday morning. Otherwise, more sunshine is expected along with breezy west-northwest winds, with gusts up to 25 mph. It will be cooler, with highs in the mid- 50s to low 60s, except still mid 60s for the Wyoming Valley: this is still slightly above average for this time of year. High pressure builds overhead Friday night, Saturday and right into Sunday. This will set the stage for a seasonable, dry and exceptional fall weather weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2:

While overall moisture and cloud cover may begin to increase on Monday, most of the deterministic model guidance is trending drier initially. With that said, the ensemble guidance and WPC still brings a lower chance for light rain showers Monday and Tuesday next week, with increase chances by the middle of next week. Exact frontal and shower timing remains to be seen, but eventually it appears our dry weather streak will come to an end sometime next week. Temperatures look to remain seasonably mild next week, with highs in the upper 50s to mid-60s and overnight lows generally in the upper 30s to 40s for most locations.

Aviation

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at all terminals with light and variable winds. Not anticipating fog to develop at ELM this morning with clouds starting to move in from the west. Southerly flow develops this afternoon, with light to moderate gusts over central NY sites.

Outlook:

Wednesday afternoon through Sunday: Mainly VFR. Morning fog at KELM possible each morning. Low chance for showers at KSYR and KRME Thursday night with a cold front moving through.

Watches, warnings and advisories

PA: None. NY: None.