Calcium, NY 13616 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, western and north central New York.

Day one

This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

What has changed

Minimal changes this afternoon.

Key messages

1) Record warmth possible Thursday.

2) Abnormally dry conditions continue through the weekend. Brief shot of light rain Thursday night.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Record warmth possible Thursday.

Upper level ridging will start to build tomorrow with above normal temperatures returning (mid to upper 60s). Low level thicknesses build even further Thursday ahead of the next frontal system, with widespread highs in the upper 60s to low 70s expected. Some records will be threatened or broken with any additional heating into the mid 70s, which will be possible, especially over the Genesee Valley due to downslope flow and dry soils (see Climate section below). A strengthening SW breeze may cap heating along the eastern Lakeshores in the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Abnormally dry conditions continue through the weekend. Brief shot of light rain Thursday night.

Dry high pressure will remain over the area through Thursday before a weak cold front moves through the region overnight and provides chances for light rain showers. Very limited forcing with this front will allow for only a few hundredths of an inch of rain to fall across most of Western and Central NY unfortunately. This will prolong our dry stretch of weather, with some fire weather concerns due to the dryness of fuels and leaf litter. Luckily, winds and RH levels won't reach close to critical levels through the weekend. See Fire weather section below for more details. High pressure builds back over the Great Lakes Friday and into this weekend, with dry weather continuing until perhaps late Sunday.

Aviation

Surface high pressure centered overhead this evening will gradually slide east toward the New England coastline. A weak warm front will start to lift northeast across Lake Erie overnight into Wednesday morning, which will lead to increasing mid and high level clouds, but ceilings should remain at or above 5000 ft. Overnight cloud cover will keep any fog formation at bay with limited cooling, with skies clearing by mid morning tomorrow and VFR conditions continuing.

Outlook:

Wednesday Night through Sunday: Generally VFR conditions expected. Some brief interruptions to MVFR conditions are possible Thursday night into Friday morning as a weak frontal system moves across the region.

Marine

High pressure will bring fair boating conditions through Thursday morning with winds generally less than 15 kts, ENE this afternoon and then veering to the SE/S by tomorrow morning. Waves will mostly be 2 feet or less and nearly flat at times.

Thereafter, winds will increase to SW 15-20 kts as the gradient tightens ahead of an approaching frontal system the rest of Thursday, and Small Craft conditions are likely to develop across eastern portions of Lake Erie, and western portions of Lake America. Small Craft conditions will spread eastward across Lake America Friday as winds shift to the west. Waves will build to 2-3 ft across Lake Erie over this period, and 3-4 ft across Lake America. Improving marine conditions this weekend with weaker winds.

Fire weather

No measurable rain has fallen for nearly two weeks in most of our region. The extended period of dry weather and sunshine has cured fine fuels and leaf litter, bringing some increase in wildfire risk. Luckily, the forecast does not show a significant overlap of strong, gusty winds and low relative humidity values through this weekend.

A weak cold front and weather disturbance should generate light and periodic rain showers Thursday night, but resulting rainfall amounts should be less than 0.10". Dry weather will follow until another chance for rain showers return this Sunday due to another weather disturbance. As a result, fine fuels and leaf litter should remain very dry.

Climate

Here are the record high temperatures for Thursday, October 30th.

Buffalo, NY 74 (1971)

Rochester, NY 76 (1896)

Watertown, NY 73 (1955)

Watches, warnings and advisories

NY: None. MARINE: None.