Yorkville, NY 13495 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and northeast Pennsylvania.

Day one

Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Lowered dewpoints for this afternoon as moisture is slower to arrive than guidance suggests. Increased wind speeds for Friday with NW flow behind the cold front.

Key messages

1)Mostly dry weather with above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. A few light rain showers are likely along and north of the Mohawk Valley Thursday night.

2) The next chance for rain showers will be for the early to middle portion of next week; although great uncertainty remains with the timing and track of the low pressure system.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1:

Clouds will continue to stream over the area as SW flow pushes a warmer and more moist airmass into the area. A few isolated radar returns have popped up, but surface moisture is too low to allow for any precipitation to reach the ground outside of a few sprinkles over higher terrain. Cold air remains trapped in the Mohawk Valley, with current temps in the mid 40s while much of the area to the south is in the low to mid 50s. Temps will continue to warm through the afternoon, with highs in the low to mid 60s across the Finger Lakes and upper 50s to low 60s across the rest of the region.

Mostly sunny skies should prevail on Thursday with southwest winds increasing between 7-15 mph. This combined with 850mb temperatures reaching +11C will allow for high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid-70s, which is about 15 degrees above average for the end of October.

A weak frontal boundary approaches Thursday evening into Thursday night from the north. This will bring increasing clouds and a few showers; mainly along and north of the Southern Tier, with the best chance for a few hundreths of an inch along the I-90 corridor. Rain should dissipate before moving into the Twin Tiers and NEPA. After the dry cold front moves through there should be lake effect clouds over Central NY through much of Friday. Breezy NW winds with gusts up to 25 mph are expected across the region. The clouds and NW flow will bring cooler temps, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s, which is still slightly above average for this time of year. High pressure builds overhead Friday night through Sunday. This will set the stage for a seasonable, dry and exceptional fall weather weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2:

A pattern shift looks to occur next week, with guidance showing a chance for a return of showers sometime in the middle of next week. The synoptic setup is quite intricate, with multiple troughs moving into the west coast at the beginning of the week. How these troughs phase and move is still very uncertain, while a strong ridge of high pressure over eastern Canada will also have a say in how quickly the weather system moves eastward or if it tracks into the Great Lakes or is pushed into the SE US. Confidence in the specifics of the system is low, but we have enough guidance showing a system developing to mention the chance for rain next week.

Aviation

VFR conditions are expected once again over the next 24 hours at most locations. There is a marine layer that is trying to work its way into NEPA and potentially the Southern Tier. AVP may see some brief periods of MVFR around 12Z, with a very low chance at MVFR at BGM but confidence was not high enough to even have a tempo. ELM saw higher humidity today but clouds and some wind should prevent fog formation but if it does form, IFR would be possible around 12Z.

Outlook:

Thursday Night through Monday: Mainly VFR. Potential front with MVFR cigs Friday morning at CNY terminals.

Watches, warnings and advisories

PA: None. NY: None.