Turin, NY 13473 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New York.

Day one

This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

What has changed

No significant forecast changes with this issuance.

Key messages

1) Seasonal and mostly dry weather is expected through Saturday.

2) A warming trend is expected Sunday through early next week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonal and mostly dry weather is expected through Saturday.

A cool, northwest flow will support a mix of sun and clouds across the eastern Great Lakes region today. 850mb temperatures have lowered to -2C across the region this afternoon. Lake effect streamers continue off Georgian Bay, and this upstream moisture and instability will extend across Lake America this afternoon. Moisture remains very shallow across central NY, so only a low chance of rain showers is expected there today. Elsewhere, diurnally driven and upslope clouds are expected with sunshine in between.

A surface high will build across the region tonight. Northwest flow aloft will continue to support some lake clouds, however dry weather is expected overnight. Lows will fall into the 30s, low 20s across the higher terrain.

High pressure will be in place across the region Saturday. Seasonal weather is expected with light winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A warming trend is expected Sunday through early next week.

Surface high pressure will move east of the region Saturday night. A southerly flow will support warmer weather Sunday with highs back in the low 60s. High pressure will move off the east coast early next week, while the westward extent remains across the Northeast. This will support a warm, and dry period through at least Tuesday.

A deep trough is expected to move from the Plains to the Mississippi Valley by mid-week. There remains high uncertainty in the evolution of a surface low and how quick moisture returns to the eastern Great Lakes region. Chances for showers begin to increase Wednesday with the potential for unsettled weather to continue through the end of the work week. Above normal temperatures are expected mid to late week.

Aviation

Shallow post-frontal moisture within prevailing northwest flow will maintain BKN-OVC035-045 this afternoon. Surface high pressure will slide over the region tonight bringing increasingly dry and stable conditions. Many areas will experience clearing skies, but some lake/upslope clouds may continue. Some valley fog will be possible in wind sheltered area. ednes Outlook:

Saturday through Wednesday: VFR.

Marine

Northwest winds will support small craft conditions on Lake America. Winds will diminish with small craft conditions ending from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach at 8PM tonight, and by 2AM across the rest of the Lake. Northwest winds 10-15 knots will create choppy conditions on Lake Erie today.

Surface high pressure will moving overhead will support light wind flow and minimal wave action over the weekend.

Fire weather

Dry weather will return today and then last through the weekend. As a result, fine fuels and leaf litter will once again become very dry.

Watches, warnings and advisories

NY: None. MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ043>045.