Aurora, NY 13081 Weather

What has changed

Guidance continues to trend drier through the first half of next week. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the current forecast with this update.

Key messages

1) Mostly dry conditions expected today and through the middle of next week with near to above normal temperatures expected.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1:

Northwest flow off of the lake will maintain lingering lake clouds through much of the day. A couple very light showers cannot be completely ruled out, but the vast majority of the area will remain dry. High pressure building eastward from the Midwest will begin to influence the region tonight, setting the stage for another extended stretch of dry weather.

Cool and dry conditions will persist into the weekend, with northwest flow continuing through Saturday. By Sunday an upper level ridge will begin building into the region from the west, allowing flow aloft to shift more westerly. This ridge will remain in place through the middle of next week, accompanied by surface high pressure that will maintain the unusually dry pattern.

Temperatures will be coolest today and Saturday, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s. A gradual warming trend will follow Sunday through the middle of next week with highs climbing into the upper 50s to upper 60s. Some locations may even approach 70 degrees at times next week. The next opportunity for more meaningful rainfall looks to arrive late Wednesday into Thursday of next week.

Aviation

Northwest flow continues to bring lake-effect clouds across much of our area this afternoon, particularly across central NY, with fewer clouds farther from the Great Lakes (KAVP). Prevailing VFR is favored through the remainder of this afternoon as gusty northwest winds help to mix out the boundary layer and raise cloud bases.

Later this evening and through the overnight hours, winds becoming more NNW within the low-level cloud layer (925-850 mb) will guide these lake-effect clouds primarily towards KITH/KELM/KBGM, with fewer clouds expected towards KRME/KSYR (due to change in cloud-layer wind direction) and KAVP (farther from the Great Lakes). Periodic MVFR ceilings may return where cloud cover is more numerous tonight, as hinted at by the 12Z HREF, as the boundary layer becomes less mixed overnight.

These clouds will gradually scatter out through Saturday morning as ridging nudges in from the Ohio Valley, with any pockets of MVFR becoming VFR by the afternoon.

Outlook:

Saturday afternoon through Wednesday: Mainly VFR.

Watches, warnings and advisories

PA: None. NY: None.