Loch Sheldrake, NY 12747 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and northeast Pennsylvania.

Day one

Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven: Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Ensemble guidance is trending drier for early next week across the area. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the current forecast with this update.

Key messages

1) Warm and dry weather continues across the area today. There will be a few rain showers dropping in from the north this evening into tonight along a cold front.

2) Dry and seasonably warm weather returns for Friday, the weekend and likely into early next week. There will eventually be increasing shower chances toward the middle or end of next week as a slow moving front approaches; uncertainty remains in the details though.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1:

Today will feature very warm and mainly sunny weather as southwest winds increase between 6-15 mph. This will advect in some very warm air into the region, with 925mb temperatures approaching +16C over the Finger Lakes and 850mb temperatures around +10C. This pattern supports near record highs ranging from the mid-60s to mid-70s over the region.

A weak, moisture starved cold front approaches from the north this evening, dropping through the area overnight. This feature will bring a narrow band of decaying showers along it, with less than a tenth of an inch of rain over Central NY: fading to no measurable rain expected over most of NE PA. Winds begin to shift northwesterly late tonight, but overnight lows remain above average in the mid-40s to lower 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2:

Friday features gusty west-northwest winds up to 25 mph and cooler temperatures in the 50s to low 60s. There will be some lingering clouds across Central NY through the day, with more sunshine for NE PA.

High pressure builds over the area Friday night, Saturday and into Sunday. This will bring seasonable and dry weather with some increasing clouds possible by later Sunday.

Weak rounds of overrunning mid level moisture stream into the region Monday and Tuesday night week. This will bring a bit more cloud cover at times, but upper level ridging continues to redevelop over the area during this time. This upper level subsidence, combined with stubborn low level dry air will make measurable rainfall unlikely during this time frame.

A slow moving upper level low looks to spin across the Midwest, slowly heading east toward the middle and end of the upcoming work week. There remains uncertainty in the timing of this frontal system as it moves east. Eventually shower chances do increase in the ensemble data, especially by next Thursday. We have plenty of time to watch this system, but this could bring our next best chance for measurable rain to portions of the forecast area.

Aviation

VFR conditions are expected for most of the period. There is a marine layer that is working its way into AVP this morning with brief periods of MVFR around 12-15Z. IFR fog at ELM this morning is expected to burn off 13-14Z. Rain showers move into the northern terminals this evening potentially bringing MVFR restrictions.

Outlook:

Thursday Night through Monday: Mainly VFR. Potential front with MVFR cigs Friday morning at CNY terminals.

Watches, warnings and advisories

PA: None. NY: None.