Germantown, NY 12526 Weather

What has changed

Dewpoints were lowered this afternoon into early this evening, and some patchy mist/fog was added near the upper Hudson Valley/Lake George Region Thu morning.

Winds/wind gusts were slightly increased Fri in the wake of the cold frontal passage Thu night.

Key messages

1) Mainly dry weather will continue through this weekend into early next week with the only chance for some light showers on Thu night, especially for areas north and west of Albany.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1:

High pressure continues to slowly shift east of New England this afternoon. The mid and upper level ridge over the Northeast continues to flattens tonight. The mid level flow becomes zonal, as a northern stream short-wave and a cold front approach from southeast Ontario and the eastern Great Lakes Region for Thu-Thu night. Some mid and high clouds that moved in today will begin to thin tonight. A south/southwest flow of milder air will occur ahead of the approaching front. The winds may decouple over the Upper Hudson Valley/Lake George Region with a partial clearing for some patchy fog to develop. Otherwise, some scattered lower stratus may form with low temps milder than previous nights in the mid 30s to lower 40s. In the weak warm sector with the south/southwest flow tomorrow, temps moderate above normal by 10 degrees or so with mid and upper 60s in the valleys (isolated 70F readings) and upper 50s to lower 60s over the mtns. Dewpoints increased into the 40s to lower 50s. The better forcing and low-level convergence with the cold front does not arrive until Thu evening. The latest NBM guidance indicates the highest probabilities (30-60%) > 0.10" of rainfall over the next 24 hrs ending 8 pm Fri will be for western Adirondacks. Lighter amounts are possible of a few hundredths into the western Mohawk Valley, western Capital Region, northern Catskills, Helderbergs and southern Greens, where slight chance PoPs were expanded. Some sprinkles are possible further south and east. Cold advection occurs Fri morning in the wake of the front with lows in the 40s to lower 50s for most of the region.

Friday features cooler and drier weather with breezy conditions. Better mixing in the wake of the front will allow for west-northwest winds 10-15 mph with some gusts 20-30 mph. The strongest gusts will likely be over the northern Catskills, within the Mohawk Valley into the Greater Capital Region, northern Taconics and the Berkshires. We blended the NBM90 wind/wind gust with the previous forecast. Temps fall back to seasonal levels, except slightly above normal from Albany south and east. The winds will begin to subside Fri night, as another Canadian surface anticyclone builds in from Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region over NY and PA. Lows will be on the chilly side in the 20s to 30s. Many locations will be close to two weeks without measurable rainfall by Friday. Halloween looks dry and seasonably warm with the sfc high in control, as temps may moderate slightly above normal to open November and continue into early next week. There continues to be a lot of spread and uncertainty in the medium deterministic/ensembles/NBM guidance, when the next widespread chance of rainfall occurs next week, which nows looks to be trending towards the mid week.

Aviation

A band of mid and high level clouds is currently moving across northern areas, with bkn cigs around KGFL and KPSF. Meanwhile, some sct high level clouds are also impacting KPOU and KPSF as well. Based on satellite trends and model soundings, most sites will be clearing out completely towards 05z or 06z. With a dry and cold air mass in place, no radiational fog is expected overnight, but will monitor T/TD trends closely. Light south to southwest winds will become calm for the overnight hours.

During the day on Thursday, flying conditions will remain VFR. Some few-sct diurnal cu around 3500-4000 ft will develop by the mid morning hours, but no precip is expected through the day on Thursday. Southerly winds will increase to 5-10 kts for all sites by the mid-morning hours and continue through the early evening hours. Some clouds may increase for Thursday night as the next frontal system starts to approach.

Outlook:

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

Watches, warnings and advisories

CT: None. NY: None. MA: None. VT: None.