Shokan, NY 12481 Weather

What has changed

In collaboration with NYS DEC and surrounding WFO's, issued Special Weather Statement (SPS) for elevated risk of fire spread on Friday for areas within and adjacent to the Hudson River Valley. Additional SPS's will also be issued for western MA/NW CT per coordination with WFO BOX and New England DEC/DEP's. Otherwise, continued trend of lowering afternoon dewpoints Friday through Sunday, and increased winds/wind gusts for Friday.

Key messages

1) Elevated risk for fire spread Friday for areas within and immediately adjacent to the Hudson River Valley, western MA and NW CT due to dry fuels combined with gusty winds and low RH.

2) Dry weather expected for this weekend through early next week, with next chance for widespread rainfall not until Thursday or Friday.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1:

Cold front will cross the region from NW to SE Friday morning, preceded and accompanied by some rain showers across the SW Adirondacks before weakening. Isolated showers/sprinkles may extend farther south and east into the Capital Region, however will remain much more limited in coverage. In the wake of the cold frontal passage, gusty northwest winds are expected to develop with gusts reaching 25-35 mph late Friday morning into the afternoon hours. RH values will drop to 35-45 percent within lower elevations of the Hudson Valley and NW CT, and 45-55 percent within slightly higher elevations of the Helderbergs, eastern Catskills, Taconics, Berkshires and Litchfield Hills. In collaboration with NYS/New England DEC's/DEP's and surrounding WFO's, given the drying fuels across these areas with little or no rainfall over the last 7+ days, a Special Weather Statement has been issued for 11 AM-6 PM Friday for elevated risk of fire spread.

KEY MESSAGE 2:

Dry weather is expected this weekend through the middle of next week, outside the very low chance of showers with a passing frontal system Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures should initially be near normal this weekend, trending above normal next week. A stronger frontal system and approaching deep upper level trough from the west may bring widespread rainfall for next Thursday or Friday.

Aviation

Through 00Z: VFR conditions begin the TAF cycle with mid and high clouds increasing prior to 06Z/Fri for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. Some light showers may reach KGFL between 04Z-08Z/Fri ahead of the cold front and a TEMPO group was used there. Cloud bases continue to lower as the front moves close to eastern NY and western New England between 06Z-09Z/FRI with cloud bases lowering to 3.5-8 kft AGL. We did use a TEMPO for a few showers at KPSF between 07Z-10Z/Fri and a VCSH group for KALB. Some MVFR stratus may develop at 2.5-3 kft AGL along and in the wake of the front between 08Z-12Z/Fri at KALB/KPSF and we included TEMPO for KALB and kept a prevailing cloud deck in at KPSF between 10Z-14Z/Sat. VFR post frontal sct-bkn stratocumulus will impact at all the TAF sites in the late morning into early to mid afternoon with bases 3.5-5 kft AGL.

South to southeast winds will become light at 3-7 KT early this evening with the 2 kft AGL winds increasing to 30-40 KT. LLWS groups were included at all the TAF sites from 00Z until 08Z-10Z/Fri. The winds will veer to the southwest to west 09Z-12Z at 4-8KT, then increase from the west to northwest at 10-16 KT in the late morning into the afternoon with some gusts 25-30 KT with deeper mixing in the wake of the front.

Outlook:

Friday Night to Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

Watches, warnings and advisories

CT: None. NY: None. MA: None. VT: None.