Jefferson, NY 12093 Weather

What has changed

Slight Chance PoPs were expanded eastward into the Capital District for tonight. Maintained gusty winds behind the cold front on Friday.

Key messages

1) A cold front will bring some light rain showers mainly from the Capital District and points north and west tonight followed by drier and breezy conditions on Friday.

2) Dry weather is expected this weekend through early next week with the next best chance for more widespread rainfall delayed until mid to late next week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1:

A mostly sunny and milder day is in store ahead of an approaching cold front. High temperatures will reach the 60s to around 70 which will be around 10 degrees above normal. While the best forcing will remain north of the area, a passing cold front should contain enough moisture to bring some light rain showers tonight with the higher probabilities north and west of Albany. Latest CAMs still suggest some isolated light showers or sprinkles could extend as far east as the Capital District so introduced slight chance PoPs (15-25%) into these areas. Measurable rainfall is favored for areas north and west of Albany but will likely remain below 0.10 inches. For most areas, it has been nearly 2 weeks since measurable rainfall last occurred. Behind the front, drier and breezy conditions develop on Friday with westerly winds gusting 20 to 30 mph with localized gusts to 35 mph into portions of the Capital District and Berkshires.

KEY MESSAGE 2:

High pressure rebuilds across the region for this weekend with dry and near seasonable weather with light winds. The high shifts to the east early next week allowing for temperatures to run about 5 degrees above normal but mostly dry weather looks to continue. Thereafter, considerable uncertainty still exists when the next best chance for more widespread rainfall occurs. Will run with chance PoPs beginning next Wednesday until confidence in the overall synoptic pattern improves.

Aviation

Through 12z/Fri: Patchy stratocu clouds have developed over KPOU/KPSF early this morning which could bring some MVFR cigs through 14-15z/Thu. KALB/KGFL will start VFR. Fair weather cumulus forms midday today through the afternoon with bases around 3500-5000 feet. These cumulus clouds diminish after sunset with a brief period of SKC conditions before clouds increase ahead of a cold front. A few light showers may reach KGFL prior to 06z/Fri so included a PROB30. A light shower or sprinkle may also reach KALB/KPSF but coverage looked too low to include in the TAF at this time. Mixed MVFR/VFR cigs are then possible around and after 06z/Fri before lifting back to VFR toward the end of the TAF period.

South to southwesterly winds will increase this morning reaching around 10 kt by this afternoon with some gusts to 20 kt, especially at KALB. Winds remain south to southwesterly 5-10 kt tonight except trend calm at KPOU. Wind will begin to shift to the west toward the end of the TAF period. Periods of LLWS will be possible at all sites tonight mainly due to the directional difference from surface winds. Winds at 2000 feet will be 30-35 kt out of the west.

Outlook:

Friday Night to Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

Watches, warnings and advisories

CT: None. NY: None. MA: None. VT: None.