Middle Island, NY 11953 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

Day one

This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS warning criteria.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria.

What has changed

Special Weather Statement issued for the LoHud Valley and S CT on Friday for an elevated fire spread risk.

Key messages

1) Dry conditions persist through at least early next week.

2) There's an elevated risk of fire spread for the Lower Hudson Valley and southern Connecticut on Friday.

Key message 1

The driest stretch of the year so far persists for the next several days.

Surface high pressure centered to our south and east weakens tonight ahead a moisture starved cold front approaching from the west. Cloud cover increases overnight ahead of the boundary, but conditions remain dry and skies clear by early afternoon once it passes through. Winds also veer NW post frontal Friday afternoon and could be noticeably blustery at times, with occasional gusts up to 25-30 mph.

Behind the fropa, dry, cooler conditions settle in for the weekend. Temperatures on Friday remain slightly above normal, with highs in the 60s to around 70 and lows mainly in the 50s. Saturday will be cooler and afternoon highs fall back in the upper 50s/lower 60s, with evening temperatures in the 40s and upper 30s outside of NYC. Frost is possible Saturday night outside the NYC metro.

Guidance continues to keep dry conditions in place through early next week. Conditions may begin to turn more unsettled by mid to late next week.

Key message 2

The combination of sufficiently dry fuels, gusty NW winds 20 to 30 mph and relatively low RH values behind a cold frontal passage will lead to an elevated risk of fire spread for parts of the area Friday afternoon.

In collaboration with state partners and neighboring forecast offices, have hoisted a Special Weather Statement for southern Connecticut and the Lower Hudson Valley to highlight this threat from 11 AM to 6 PM Friday.

Aviation

VFR as high pressure remains nearby, and a dry cold front moves through Friday morning.

S-SW winds mainly 10 kt or less tonight become WSW late, then W-NW with fropa in the morning. Speeds increase to 10-20 kt with gusts up to 20 kt by late morning, increasing to 20-25 kt during the afternoon.

: NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty:

Timing of onset of stronger winds daytime Fri could occur 1-2 hours earlier than fcst.

Outlook for 00z saturday through tuesday

Friday night and Saturday: VFR. Diminishing NW winds Fri evening.

Sunday through Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

Marine

SCA remains in effect on the ocean waters out 20 nm for Fri afternoon and evening as NW flow gusts up to 25 kt after a cold frontal passage in the morning. High pressure should then build in for the weekend, with sub-SCA conditions on all waters through at least early next week.

Watches, warnings and advisories

CT: None. NY: None. NJ: None. MARINE: Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 3 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.