Stony Brook University, NY 11794 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS warning criteria.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria.

What has changed

No significant changes to forecast.

Key messages

1) There's an elevated risk of fire spread for the Lower Hudson Valley and southern Connecticut into the early evening.

2) Frost-Freeze conditions likely outside of NYC/NJ metro Saturday Night into Sunday AM. Otherwise, dry and increasingly mild conditions for early to mid next week.

3) The Next chance of a wetting rain late next week.

Key message 1

The combination of sufficiently dry fuels, gusty NW winds 25 to 35 mph and relatively low RH values in wake of morning cold frontal passage will continue an elevated risk of fire spread, particularly for Lower Hudson valley and southern CT into early this evening.

In collaboration with state partners and neighboring forecast offices, a Special Weather Statement for southern Connecticut and the Lower Hudson Valley remains to highlight this threat thru 6 PM today.

Key message 2

The driest stretch of the year so far persists for the next several days in response to confluent NW upper flow this weekend, giving way to east coast upper ridging thru midweek. At the surface, modified Canadian high pressure builds overhead through this weekend, and then gradually offshore through midweek.

CAA on gusty NW winds (25-35 mph) into the first half of tonight, subsiding through Saturday morning. Sunny, dry and seasonably chilly airmass for this weekend. Saturday will be slightly cooler than Sunday, with highs generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Widespread frost conditions likely, scattered freeze conditions possible, across eastern LI, southern CT and southern Westchester county Saturday night/early Sunday under good radiational cooling conditions. The one caveat will be the northeastward progression of a cirrus deck associated with shearing central US shortwave, and to a lesser extent upper jet streak aloft and a weak northern stream shortwave moving through northern New England. Although frost-freeze conditions are expected across areas to the north of this, the frost-freeze program has already ended for these interior areas. The frost-freeze program will end for Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Southern Westchester, Coastal Connecticut, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Union the morning of Sunday November 1.

Gradually moderating conditions for early next week as heights rise aloft and high pressure slides offshore with return SW flow. High temps incrementally rising through the 60s each day, with overnight lows rising from in the 30s and 40s Sunday morning to 40s and 50s by Wednesday morning.

Key message 3

General NWP/AI model agreement in NW PAC troughing slowly moving southeastward across the CONUS through the early-mid next week, approaching the middle eastern US late week. Considerable spread on the particulars of the trough as it moves towards the east coast late week (whether it remains influenced by the northern stream and approaches as a closed low towards the NE/Mid Atlantic US East coast or detaches from northern stream and drifts across the SE US). At least a low potential for a frontal system or low pressure system to affect the area late in the week with a wetting rainfall, but inherently low predictability on details this far out.

Aviation

High pressure builds in from the west behind a cold front that moved through earlier today.

VFR.

NW winds with speeds 10-15 kt and gusts 20-25 kt through late afternoon and into early evening. Gusts subside by 3Z and flow remains NW on Saturday with speeds around 10 kt or less.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty:

Timing of gust cessation could be an hour or two off.

Occasional gusts to 20 kt possible for a period after 3Z Sat.

Outlook for 18z saturday through tuesday

Saturday: VFR. NW winds around 10 kt.

Sunday through Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

Marine

NW flow gusts around 30 kt for all waters into first half of tonight. Winds will gradually subsides late tonight into Saturday as high pressure build in for the weekend.

Sub-SCA conditions then expected on all waters Saturday through Wednesday.

Watches, warnings and advisories

CT: None. NY: None. NJ: None. MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355.