North Great River, NY 11752 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS warning criteria.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria.

What has changed

No significant changes at this time.

Updated for Aviation.

Key messages

1) High pressure will remain the dominant player through the weekend.

2) One more round of localized minor coastal flooding for the SW CT coast during the time of high tide this afternoon.

Key message 1

A benign stretch of weather will continue through the upcoming weekend with high pressure largely in control. High pressure across the area this morning will move offshore this afternoon and then gradually gives way to another approaching cold front, which passes through dry on Friday. Another strong high builds across the area for the weekend.

Outside of some of high level clouds today associated with a shortwave moving through the ridge, expect mostly sunny days and clear nights. Highs today are forecast to be in the upper 50s to lowers 60s, gradually warming through Friday. Highs have backed off a bit on Friday with a dry cold frontal passage during the late morning into the early afternoon hours. However, it will still be unseasonably warm with temperatures in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Both highs and lows Friday will be about 10 degrees above normal.

Behind the cold front, cooler weather is on tap for the weekend, but remaining dry.

Rain chances remain low for Sunday night into Tuesday. Based on latest trends in the global models, northern branch high pressure could win out and keep conditions dry.

Key message 2

This afternoon should be the last round of localized minor coastal flooding for coastal Fairfield county in SW CT. While high pressure is over the region, astronomically high tides (King Tide) and an easterly swell have produced the above normal water levels. Less than foot is needed to reach minor coastal flood benchmarks. Water levels will gradually subside for the remainder of the week.

Aviation

Strong high pressure remains near the area terminals through the TAF period.

VFR.

Light NE-E to near calm winds this morning into the early afternoon. Winds then become SE-S winds 5-10 kt around or after 16-18Z. Light and variable winds expected once again this evening and overnight.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty:

Timing of wind direction shifts may be off by +/- an hour.

Outlook for 15z thursday through sunday

Thursday through Saturday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt possible Fri afternoon.

Sunday: Mainly VFR throughout the day. Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible late and towards evening from the NYC metro terminals north/west.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

Marine

Conditions should remain below SCA levels through the week with high pressure in control and a relatively weak pressure gradient most of the time. The gradient will strengthen a bit with the approach and passage of a cold front later this week, and isolated gusts up to 25 kt cannot be completely ruled out on the ocean waters late Friday.

Watches, warnings and advisories

CT: None. NY: None. NJ: None. MARINE: None.