New York, NY 11004 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

Day one

This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS warning criteria.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria.

What has changed

SCA issued for the ocean waters out to 20nm for Friday afternoon/night.

Key messages

1) A dry cold frontal passage on Friday will be followed by another strong area of high pressure for the weekend.

Key message 1

A shortwave trough riding over top of the upper ridge will send a cold front toward the area today, with the frontal passage Friday morning. Another area of strong high pressure builds into the area for the weekend with more autum-like airmass. System is moisture starved and any shower activity with the front is forecast to remain north of the area.

Gusty NW winds will follow behind the cold front Friday with the potential for gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon. NBM and NBM90 looked too deficient in the cold advection based on 00Z model soundings. This is a noted bias. Used a blend of the raw GFS, NAM12 and NBM/NBM90.

Temperatures today into Friday will be about 10 degrees above normal, with highs in the 60s to around 70, and lows mainly in the 50s. However, it cools back down to more seasonable levels for the weekend with highs in the 50s to around 60, and lows in the 30s and 40s. Frost is possible Saturday night for some coastal locations where the growing season has yet to end.

Guidance continues to keep dry conditions in place through early next week. Conditions may begin to turn more unsettled by mid next week.

Aviation

High pressure remains nearby throughout the TAF period. A dry cold front moves through early Friday morning.

Mainly VFR conditions continue. An area of MVFR SCT to BKN clouds over NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley will scour out over the next hour. There may be a brief period of MVFR conditions for these locations and into the some of the metro terminals through 19Z.

S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt during the afternoon and early evening. Some gusts to 20 kt are possible this afternoon. End time of gusts are uncertain. Winds remain from the SW but lighten a bit Thursday night, then turn to the W and NW into Friday and increase to 10 to 20 kt sustained with gusts up to 20 kt by late morning, increasing to 20 to 25 kt possible by the early afternoon.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty:

Gusts to 20 kt possible this afternoon. End time is uncertain, but sometime between 21Z and 00Z is likely.

Outlook for 18z friday through tuesday

Friday afternoon through Saturday: VFR. NW winds G20 to around 25 kt possible Fri afternoon.

Sunday: Mainly VFR.

Monday-Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

Marine

SCA has been issued for the ocean waters out to 20nm for Friday afternoon/night.

A cold frontal passage Friday morning will be followed by a gusty NW flow developing during the afternoon hours with gusts up to 30 kt into the first half of Friday night.

The SCA may need to be extended to the non-ocean waters. For the time, there is a mention of occasional 25 kt gusts.

High pressure builds in for the weekend with sub-SCA conditions expected into at least early next week.

Watches, warnings and advisories

CT: None. NY: None. NJ: None. MARINE: Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 3 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.