Valley Cottage, NY 10989 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

Day one

This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS warning criteria.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria.

What has changed

Special Weather Statement issued for the LoHud Valley and S CT on Friday for an elevated fire spread risk.

Key messages

1) Dry conditions persist through at least early next week.

2) There's an elevated risk of fire spread for the Lower Hudson Valley and southern Connecticut on Friday.

Key message 1

The driest stretch of the year so far persists for the next several days.

Surface high pressure centered to our south and east weakens tonight ahead a moisture starved cold front approaching from the west. Cloud cover increases overnight ahead of the boundary, but conditions remain dry and skies clear by early afternoon once it passes through. Winds also veer NW post frontal Friday afternoon and could be noticeably blustery at times, with occasional gusts up to 25-30 mph.

Behind the fropa, dry, cooler conditions settle in for the weekend. Temperatures on Friday remain slightly above normal, with highs in the 60s to around 70 and lows mainly in the 50s. Saturday will be cooler and afternoon highs fall back in the upper 50s and low 60s, with evening temperatures in the 40s and upper 30s outside of NYC. Frost is possible Saturday night outside the NYC metro.

Guidance continues to keep dry conditions in place through early next week. Conditions may begin to turn more unsettled by mid to late next week.

Key message 2

The combination of sufficiently dry fuels, gusty NW winds 20 to 30 mph and relatively low RH values behind a cold frontal passage will lead to an elevated risk of fire spread for parts of the area Friday afternoon.

In collaboration with state partners and neighboring forecast offices, have hoisted a Special Weather Statement for southern Connecticut and the Lower Hudson Valley to highlight this threat from 11am to 6pm Friday.

Aviation

High pressure remains nearby throughout the TAF period. A dry cold front moves through early Friday morning.

Mainly VFR conditions continue. An area of MVFR SCT to BKN clouds over NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley will scour out over the next hour. There may be a brief period of MVFR conditions for these locations and into the some of the metro terminals through 19Z.

S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt during the afternoon and early evening. Some gusts to 20 kt are possible this afternoon. End time of gusts are uncertain. Winds remain from the SW but lighten a bit Thursday night, then turn to the W and NW into Friday and increase to 10 to 20 kt sustained with gusts up to 20 kt by late morning, increasing to 20 to 25 kt possible by the early afternoon.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty:

Gusts to 20 kt possible this afternoon. End time is uncertain, but sometime between 21Z and 00Z is likely.

Outlook for 18z friday through tuesday

Friday afternoon through Saturday: VFR. NW winds G20 to around 25 kt possible Fri afternoon.

Sunday: Mainly VFR.

Monday-Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

Marine

NW flow develops behind a cold frontal passage Friday morning, with gusty winds expected by the afternoon.

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on coastal ocean waters out to 20 nm for Friday afternoon and evening. Gusts as high as 25 kt are expected. It remains possible the advisory could be expanded to include portions of the LI Sound and the back bays of LI.

High pressure builds in for the weekend with sub-SCA conditions then expected on all waters through at least early next week.

Watches, warnings and advisories

CT: None. NY: None. NJ: None. MARINE: Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 3 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.