Middletown, NY 10958 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS warning criteria.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria.

What has changed

No significant changes to the forecast.

Key messages

1) Dry conditions persist through at least early next week.

2) There's an elevated risk of fire spread for the Lower Hudson Valley and southern Connecticut on Friday.

Key message 1

The driest stretch of the year so far persists for the next several days.

Highs today will reach the mid 60s to low 70s before a cold front passes midday into afternoon. The cold front will be dry with only brief increasing clouds into the morning, clearing into the evening. Following the front, winds veer NW with gusts 25-30 mph late this afternoon into the first half of tonight.

Behind the fropa, dry, cooler conditions settle in for the weekend. Saturday will be cooler as afternoon highs fall back in the upper 50s/lower 60s, with evening temperatures in the 40s and upper 30s outside of NYC. Overnight lows Saturday night may drop into the mid/low 40s in the NYC metro/Nassau, then into the 30s elsewhere. Although some interior spots and the LI Pine Barrens may drop below freezing as winds drop off under clear skies allowing for efficient radiational cooling. Frost is possible Saturday night outside the NYC metro.

Guidance continues to keep dry conditions in place through early next week with temperatures gradually warming each day. Conditions may begin to turn more unsettled by mid to late next week.

Key message 2

The combination of sufficiently dry fuels, gusty NW winds 20 to 30 mph and relatively low RH values behind a cold frontal passage will lead to an elevated risk of fire spread for parts of the area this afternoon.

In collaboration with state partners and neighboring forecast offices, have hoisted a Special Weather Statement for southern Connecticut and the Lower Hudson Valley to highlight this threat from 11 AM to 6 PM today.

Aviation

VFR. A cold front moves through later this morning into the afternoon. No precipitation is expected with its passage.

WSW winds become W-NW with the frontal passage. Speeds increase to 10-20 kt with gusts up to 20 kt by late morning, increasing to 20-25 kt during the afternoon. Gusts subside 00-03Z but remain NW.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty:

Timing of onset of stronger winds daytime Fri could occur 1-2 hours earlier than fcst. Ending time of gusts may also be off by 1 or 2 hours.

Outlook for 00z saturday through tuesday

Friday night and Saturday: VFR. Diminishing NW winds Fri evening.

Sunday through Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

Marine

SCA remains in effect on the ocean waters out 20 nm for this afternoon into early tonight as NW flow gusts up to 25 kt after a cold frontal passage in the morning. The eastern Sound entrance has been added to the SCA. NY Harbor may see gusts reaching 25 kt, but expected to be more occasional. High pressure should then build in for the weekend, with sub-SCA conditions on all waters through at least early next week.

Watches, warnings and advisories

CT: None. NY: None. NJ: None. MARINE: Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ332-350-353-355.