Days 8 to 10: NOAA National Blend of Models, station KSWF (Newburgh/Stewart Intl, 11 mi), model run 10/29/2026, 4:00 AM EDT
Hazardous weather outlookIssued 10/29/2026, 2:32 AM EDT
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.
Day one
Today and tonight.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
Days two through seven
Friday through Wednesday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS warning criteria.
Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted.
Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria.
Forecaster's discussionIssued 10/29/2026, 3:22 AM EDT
What has changed
SCA issued for the ocean waters out to 20nm for Friday afternoon/night.
Key messages
1) A dry cold frontal passage on Friday will be followed by another strong area of high pressure for the weekend.
Key message 1
A shortwave trough riding over top of the upper ridge will send a cold front toward the area today, with the frontal passage Friday morning. Another area of strong high pressure builds into the area for the weekend with more autum-like airmass. System is moisture starved and any shower activity with the front is forecast to remain north of the area.
Gusty NW winds will follow behind the cold front Friday with the potential for gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon. NBM and NBM90 looked too deficient in the cold advection based on 00Z model soundings. This is a noted bias. Used a blend of the raw GFS, NAM12 and NBM/NBM90.
Temperatures today into Friday will be about 10 degrees above normal, with highs in the 60s to around 70, and lows mainly in the 50s. However, it cools back down to more seasonable levels for the weekend with highs in the 50s to around 60, and lows in the 30s and 40s. Frost is possible Saturday night for some coastal locations where the growing season has yet to end.
Guidance continues to keep dry conditions in place through early next week. Conditions may begin to turn more unsettled by mid next week.
Aviation
High pressure remains nearby throughout the TAF period.
VFR conditions continue.
Winds will primarily be light and variable through the morning push. Winds become more SW Thursday morning, with wind speeds around 7 to 10 kt during the afternoon and early evening. Winds remain from the SW but lighten a bit Thursday night.
: NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty:
No amendments expected.
Outlook for 06z friday through monday
Thursday night through Saturday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt possible Fri afternoon.
Sunday: Mainly VFR.
Monday: Manly VFR. Low chance of a shower with pockets of sub VFR possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
Marine
SCA has been issued for the ocean waters out to 20nm for Friday afternoon/night.
A cold frontal passage Friday morning will be followed by a gusty NW flow developing during the afternoon hours with gusts up to 30 kt into the first half of Friday night.
The SCA may need to be extended to the non-ocean waters. For the time, there is a mention of occasional 25 kt gusts.
High pressure builds in for the weekend with sub-SCA conditions expected into at least early next week.
Watches, warnings and advisories
CT: None. NY: None. NJ: None. MARINE: Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 3 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.
From the National Weather Service; may be delayed. Not for life-safety decisions. In an emergency, call 911.
Next 6 hours
NWS hourly forecast
Now42°Sunny0%5 mph
8 AM45°Mostly Sunny0%5 mph
9 AM49°Sunny0%6 mph
10 AM53°Sunny0%6 mph
11 AM57°Sunny0%7 mph
12 PM60°Sunny0%8 mph
Hourly details
Next 7 days: temperature chart, feels like, rain and snow amounts, sky cover, wind and gustsShowHide
What is the high temperature today in Nelsonville, NY 10516?
The National Weather Service forecast for today calls for a high near 66°F. Sunny.
Will it rain in Nelsonville, NY 10516 in the next 24 hours?
The NWS hourly forecast does not show any hour with a 50% or higher chance of precipitation in the next 24 hours.
What is the 10-day forecast for Nelsonville, NY 10516?
The first 7 days come from the National Weather Service forecast. Days 8 to 10 (Nov 5 to Nov 7) come from the NOAA National Blend of Models, with highs of 60°F to 68°F and up to a 53% chance of precipitation. Model guidance this far out often changes.
What time is sunrise and sunset in Nelsonville, NY 10516 today?
Sunrise is about 7:23 AM EDT and sunset is about 5:54 PM EDT (calculated for the center of the area, within a few minutes).
What is the normal October weather in Nelsonville, NY 10516?
At West Point, the 1991 to 2020 normal high in October is 63°F and the normal low is 46°F.
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